Futures:
1 Like
The entire state and one of the largest economies in the world.
You can go for walks.
Pennsylvania earlier Thursday ordered all ânon life-saving businessesâ to close across the state.
Itâs starting.
2 Likes
Deaths are now 2k a day and rising. The US and many countries like Brazil are still not locked down.
I see spring break as a massive transmission vector back to parents at home, all those young people partying are going to infect each other and then their family later when they are home. Eventually this will hit states like Florida hardest and it is probably too late for the US now to contain it - California and NY are the only states taking it seriously soon enough and even there some are defying the ban. Some leadership is required and wonât be forthcoming, all we get from Trump is itâs not my fault and superlative soup.
I agree it will pass (hopefully far less than 1 million dead) but I fear the economic impact will be bad because an extended lockdown is now required. Layoffs are gathering pace too and will spread from travel, retail etc to industries currently unaffected worldwide.
4 Likes
Cineworld starting layoffs.
Although they may have jumped the gun:
1 Like
1 Like
I think statistically we will see a second wave, all the people that have been infected will start showing symptoms over the next week.
1 Like
I agree, I think we will get this bounce in the market going into the weekend then one more drop in the next week or two.
It is absolutely common consensus we are going into recession, so Iâm not sure how much of that will have already been priced into the market and certain stocks.
Lots of dividend suspensions today.
I wonder how this effects yields on the market tracking ETFâs.
1 Like
Yep Weatherspoons joins the list.
Heff, you are right.
My better half is a respiratory consultant at a London hospital coordinating that hospitalâs response to whatâs unfolding. They had asymptomatic outpatient cases in early February, where patients had no travel history to affected zones which implies this was spreading within the community back then - six weeks ago. Considering the R0 of this is high, this is now widely prevalent within the UK - but in the absence of a wide scale testing or tracing regime itâs hard to get a truly accurate view.
We are at ~5% Italyâs number of deaths but a few weeks behind in terms of progress, yet not taking seriously measures to drastically restrict its spread, so your hypothesis is correct and is slowly sinking in within government.
6 Likes
I am not sure chinaâs curve can be extrapolated for Europe and US. Controls similar to china would be very difficult to implement in Europe and USA. Next week would be interesting as number of cases from USA and Europe would increase significantly
The Bank of England (BOE) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) announced that it has cancelled stress tests for the eight major UK banks.
Stress tests are when the BOE looks at individual banks and calculates if they have adequate buffer zone of money to weather a downturn in the economy or any crises. Under a mandatory international accounting rule, known as IFRS 9, it also forces them to book bad loans earlier than in previous crises.
Seems an odd thing to stop now.
Huge amount of work for individuals at the Banks involved - theyâre probably fire-fighting for real at the moment. Weâve had a fair amount of recent communication from the regulators saying theyâre cutting work right back to the essential functions. Judging by the FCAâs contact centre going down, theyâre getting smashed by a wave of demand tooâŠ
2 Likes
So shit got real last night. I got four kids, we have been self isolating for 10 days as one got sent home with a fever. He is five, woke up in a total panic, sweating, deep dry cough that wouldnât stop, shallow breathing and difficulty talking in between.
Called 111, ambulance showed up in half an hour, by which stage he had calmed down somewhat. They couldnât say with certainty, as theyâre not testing, but he looks to be well and was breathing properly again with the right oxygen levels.
Stay safe.
30 Likes
I hope everything is okay now. I have had a very similar thing over the last 8 days and Australia is not testing either. I took steroids to help with the chest tightness and breathing, so if the pain is not getting better that might be a useful avenue.
2 Likes
I would be shiting myself if it were with one of mine (I donât have any as far as I am aware, but still)
Take care
2 Likes
Glad to hear your son is OK, best wishes for a swift recovery and I hope he feels better now. Itâs a horrible thing to see your kids ill.
We have young children too, and my wife is a GP so I expect we will all catch this (if we havenât already). Iâve been reassuring myself by thinking that kids mortality is really really low for this thing. Itâs the kids grandparents Iâm most worried about at the moment - we have one set in a rural area (fine for now), and one in London who we have banned from visiting for now in case the kids pass it on.
Itâs really frustrating that they donât have the tests available, so many problems are caused by that, but at least theyâre trying to sort testing and ventilators out in the UK. Not even frontline NHS staff can get tested, which is madness. I do wish they would close all pubs etc in London, the strategy seems a little muddled at this point and advice changes day to day.
I hope your son feels better soon.
5 Likes
This not testing gives absolutely no confirmation which would be helpful for deciding next steps and if immunity has been achieved