Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/argentina-mulls-10-day-lockdown-to-beat-virus-president-says

It’s tough for investors to see this news and not feel overwhelmed about their investments, remember though, no matter how bad it is, the countries still have to recover and move on and grow. Albeit people’s habits will most likely be altered, hopefully towards the more environmentally conscious.

We’re looking like a 50% decline possibly slightly more all depending on the cure timeline and the cure roll out. 50% decline keeps arising as a possibility.

We all knew the next decline would be significantly faster due to technology being faster, let’s not make that another panic to worry about.

Dollar cost averaging appears a lot on this forum and that is one way of looking at things.

Peace out :v:t3:

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I would agree that you have to be careful going back in now, as I don’t feel we have hit the bottom yet. Yesterday and today have been strong rallies, but they feel like dead cat bounces or bear rallies that are driven by sentiment around coordinated stimulus.

Today also an unusually large number of options seem to expire, which seem to aid the uplift.

I suspect Monday may be a bloodbath again as the sentiment has worn off and reality around growth of Corona cases has crept back in over the weekend.

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:thinking:

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Depends on how you look at. Between open and close, then yes. But high was 2928, low was 2788, so still a 5% spike in between open and close. Huge volatility.

Pubs bars and restaurants ordered to close by the government. I haven’t been going anyway but its very strange not having the option.

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30 second read

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/hot-tips/

One BBC Radio host says people haven’t been listening to the advice about social distancing.

London’s Carnaby St is apparently mostly “shut” - including shops, Soho’s pubs are mostly closed, newsagents and off-licenses OK. Some pubs letting people finish their drinks. Source - BBC Radio.

Coffee/food places are takeaway only or closed.

Food and retail jobs

North California implemented the no-bars and cafes but takeaway “policy” first and, coupled with the work from home thing, it’s affecting many food and retail jobs, as plenty more people have been already laid off in other sectors:

Yesterday, the entire CA state implemented the same measures for safety reasons.


(FT site)


(from https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETK13lwXQAAhJ73?format=jpg&name=medium)

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Interesting comparison:

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Anyone looking forward to limit down(s) today or on Monday?

I don’t trust today, one minute it goes really up then slowly down. Monday is going to go way down. I was right, I ended the day starting with the same amount as this morning!

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Futures are already down by nearly 2% :smirk:

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On a lighter note, which I suspect everyone needs to some extent - I certainly do

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Check out from 15:45, Joseph Carlson discussing Howard Marks’s take on where the bottom of this market is.

(Spoiler he doesn’t know, but excellent foresight on when to start buying in)

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:rescue_worker_helmet:

F1 teams have engineering capabilities that could speed up the production of the units, which are in short supply.

The aerospace and automotive sectors are also engaged in the discussions.

"Working with Innovate UK, the High Value Manufacturing Catapult team and University College London and UCL hospitals, the teams are evaluating a number of routes to support in conjunction with existing manufacturers and organisations from the aerospace and automotive sectors.

A number of teams have applied-technologies divisions that could directly feed into the national production capacity of ventilators in the UK, particularly McLaren, Red Bull, Williams and Mercedes.

But all teams have advanced manufacturing capability that could potentially be used to make complex devices such as this, and as many will help as can.

The idea is to increase the supply of the existing design of ventilators rather than try to come up with a new approach.

The UK is estimated to need an extra 20,000 ventilators to deal with the crisis as it develops over the coming months.

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