Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

Latest from the White House.

Wonder how this will age?

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This is chilling.

Doesn’t really matter. He’ll just say he never said it. And most Americans apparently rather believe Agent Orange instead of written documents.

From Barron’s:

“ Don’t get too excited about the second consecutive day of stock- market gains.

In a note to clients on Wednesday, TS Lombard strategists said the market has more room to fall, citing expectations that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 could fall roughly 30%.

That decline, and the effects of the economic slump they see, put the fair value of the S&P 500 closer to 1600 to 1800, down as much as 35% from the closing level of 2475.56 on Wednesday.

For the second quarter, Dumas estimates the U.S. economy could contract 18%, shrinking by 7% in the third quarter. So far, social- distancing measures in the U.S. have closed industries that contribute 30%—or 35 million—of private-sector jobs. TS Lombard expects 12 million people will lose their jobs in the first round of cuts in April, and that may not be the high mark.”

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:seat:

Buckle up: :

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Gavin-Newsom-banks-mortgages-press-conference-15157044.php
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/California-unemployment-coronavirus-numbers-news-15152303.php

https://www.wsj.com/articles/surge-in-unemployment-claims-sparks-delayed-checks-amid-coronavirus-crisis-11585059384

There’s hope while we’re racing against time.

Dyson is in the news:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90481936/dyson-is-building-15000-ventilators-to-fight-covid-19

Working under a grant from the U.K. government, with oversight from the U.K. National Health Service and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), Dyson has agreed to produce 10,000 ventilators for the country. On top of that, it will produce another 5,000 ventilators for donation. One thousand of those will go to the U.K. The remaining 4,000 will go to other countries.

While American companies including GM, Ford, and Tesla have expressed a willingness to produce ventilators to address current shortages, the medical technology used by existing ventilators is proprietary, and most reports say it could take months to convert such vehicle manufacturers to ventilator production. What’s novel about Dyson’s approach is that the ventilators are designed and engineered in-house.

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Dyson. Jesus Christ this will bankrupt the country.

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JOBS

US unemployment - state-wide:

Weekly initial unemployment claims are on track to spike to a historic 3.4 million for the third week of March, according to an analysis by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

If the number jumps to that level when the weekly report comes out Thursday, it will far surpass the highest level of weekly initial claims on record.

“This will dwarf every other week in history, as can be seen by comparing the projection against the trend in initial claims back to 1967,” the study’s authors wrote.

The last unemployment claims report already saw claims increase by about a third to 281,000, but steps to combat the coronavirus epidemic have ratcheted up dramatically since the period covered by that report.

Late last week, Goldman Sachs predicted that the new claims would spike to 2.25 million, but the EPI count of state-level claims from 35 states and Washington, D.C., already surpassed that figure.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489300-unemployment-claims-could-spike-to-34-million-study



Florida:


Texas:

Texas unemployment rate headed toward double digits, comptroller warns | The Texas Tribune


California:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Gavin-Newsom-banks-mortgages-press-conference-15157044.php


Michigan:

Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance Agency, where claims for jobless benefits rose 21-fold last week to nearly 109,000, said people were getting a busy signal and its website was slowing down at times. The agency said applying online during off-peak hours, 8 p.m. to 8 a.m, will expedite the process. The deadline to apply has been extended from 14 to 28 days.


Missouri:

Canada is giving CA$ 2,000 a month for a few months.

The aid package will give people affected by the outbreak C$2,000 a month and delay student loan repayments, among other measures to boost the economy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday.

A new portal will be set up by April 6, for people who have lost jobs or are unable to work, to apply for the monthly payments, which will run for four months.

Trudeau said Canada was testing 10,000 people a day …

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-ccoronavirus-canada/canada-doubles-value-of-coronavirus-stimulus-package-promises-cash-loan-delays-idUKKBN21C1XB

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I’ve noticed more and more people on the streets wearing masks and gloves.

Hats off to them.

Cambridge University research shows it’s best to cover your face

Researchers at Cambridge University tested a wide range of household materials for homemade masks. To measure effectiveness, they shot Bacillus atrophaeus bacteria (0.93-1.25 microns) and Bacteriophage MS virus (0.023 microns in size) at different household materials.

Not surprisingly, the surgical mask performed best, capturing 97% of the 1-micron bacteria. Yet every single material filtered out at least 50% of particles. The top performers were the vacuum cleaner bag (95%), the dish cloth (“tea towel” in the UK! 83%), the cotton blend shirt fabric (74%), and the 100% cotton shirt (69%).

Are we going to see a wave of M&A as a consequence of this?

Earlier many were saying masks do not protect because there were not enough masks for doctors and nurses. I bought myself two industrial masks, haven’t used them yet though. My plan to use them at risky places.

If anyone looking to buy KN95 masks are also OK.

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10 minute test being developed

PS: to access copy the title, paste it into your preferred search engine, and search

Highly highly likely. I worked in m&a. Periods like this one are money making times for them. They are very bullish.

Yes. I work in M&A. We are very busy and the amount of work that is coming in is quite frightening from a bandwidth perspective. We are seeing a lot of foreign attention (Chinese) on the UK.

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Low pound doesn’t help. :joy:

Absolutely. A lot of our UK clients are working very hard to future proof themselves against hostile takeovers.

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University of Cambridge, Public Health England, Amgen, et al research:

Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?

Objective: This study examined homemade masks as an alternative to commercial face masks.

Methods: Several household materials were evaluated for the capacity to block bacterial and viral aerosols.

Twenty-one healthy volunteers made their own face masks from cotton t-shirts; the masks were then tested for fit. The number of microorganisms isolated from coughs of healthy volunteers wearing their homemad.e mask, a surgical mask, or no mask was compared using several air-sampling techniques.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a homemade mask should only be considered as a last resort to prevent droplet transmission from infected individuals, but it would be better than no protection.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258525804_Testing_the_Efficacy_of_Homemade_Masks_Would_They_Protect_in_an_Influenza_Pandemic#pf7

Initial jobless claims day today

Futures are down.

Update:

New York:

Last week, a total of 1.7 million people called New York State’s Department of Labor (NYS DOL). The department has seen a 1000% increase in claims in some areas of New York, according to a spokesperson.