Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

We know they aren’t the economy but they represent the top businesses in the world, almost 80% of which must be running at a deficit for the past month now with 6 million extra unemployed in a matter of 7 days :man_shrugging:t3::joy: you can’t say it makes sense that the market should bounce lol

I mean “you” as in a generalisation btw, can’t get my head round this at all :smile:

The American market is being artificially pumped and propped up. That’s why the growth makes zero sense. Apparently shorts are also having to cover their losses, adding to the rise.

The S&P 500 is clearly not worth today - the same it was in June 2019.

Hyper Inflation is going to be a very real prospect going forward with all this stimulus.

I never liked to hold gold, but I am very much looking into property as an alternative to my stock portfolio as I see that being a way to prosper in a high inflation environment.

Working age population in the US: 205.9mm (February 2020) (Source)

Initial job unemployment claims over three weeks: 16.6mm.

That’s 8% of people who filed for unemployment.

Allianz said this afternoon that the number in total is at 10%.

Meanwhile, the Fed (the US central bank) will start buying recently downgraded to “junk” bonds.

Stay solvent and stay at home.

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The S&P 500 shows signs that this rally (although turbulent) is sustainable. Mid March was the entry and then a ‘wait till more specific knowledge comes about’, to find more entry points based on actual valuations and market conditions.

It is now a case of - forget the fomo if you missed the dip and find entry points on cash flow companies that can survive well during a prolonged recession. Strong, low debt companies that had excellent prospects before this event.

The real threat now is job loss. At first it was the virus, things move quickly. The job loss is the major threat to the economy.

Jerome Powell just quoted as saying June 30th is the likely date for America opening back up their economy. That’s a long time to keep the largest economic powerhouse in the world closed, earnings Q2 and Q3 are going to be something else.

The economy is screwed and the markets are bonkers. More Gordon Ramsey please.

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Food and commodities are also good calls in inflationary environment

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All that funny money is inflating the market, its actually very worrisome. The actual economy is in pieces and even though the market is generally forward looking there is simply no reason for this rally. Once the market realises that the lockdowns across the world are going to do some serious damage, this house of cards will collapse.

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We are in recession and lockdown whilst also witnessing the largest weekly rally in the S&P 500.

It is almost as though the market never crashed. Many trusts are exactly where they were pretty much one month ago. Take a look at WWH.

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Surely when earnings start to come in, it will correct.

Ok.

This is high frequency trading (70-80% of the stock markets).

vs

the rest of us.

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Gates is hopeful that education can return before a coronavirus vaccine is widely available, which he expects could take 18 months.
He said the earliest the U.S. could reopen is the end of May.
But he cautioned that the pandemic has permanently changed how people act, and it will take a vaccine or effective cure to make people confident enough to go out again.

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Earnings from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and JNJ next week - so the rubber hits the road at that point I guess.

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Most of it is idle speculation whoever its from

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Keep an eye on non-performing loan (NPL) data - though that’s usually something like Xdays of non-payment, so we may not see a bunch of consumer and SME debt being classified internally as NPL until later this year.

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We’re just making random comments and keeping the community talking. Most of it is repeated from experts with 50 years of knowledge in the markets… None of it is serious or meant to offend you.

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Remember those professionals that bought MySpace for 500 million :sweat_smile:

Many, many years after it was already dead :sweat_smile:

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Everyone is entitled to discuss what they wish

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