Forget the stock market stuff Seb, Iām more interested in what you had for your Ā£8 homemade dinner tonightā¦
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12% and risingā¦
As of mid-March, pre-lockdown the number of people out of jobs in the US officially was at around 7mm (Source).
Assuming the number of new jobs during March wasnāt significant, adding the above-mentioned 7mm to 16.6mm-16.8mm of new unemployed claims adds up to almost 24mm in total (excluding this week).
Then, you divide 24mm by 206mm (estimated working age population as of February) and thatās a rate of nearly 12% unemployment already.
15% ā¦
But, the number could be a lot higher, according to this lot:
Unemployment Rate in the United States is expected to be 15.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United States to stand at 19.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2021 and 12.90 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
(Source - United States Unemployment Rate)
20% ā¦
The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April.
JPMorgan economists issued an even more dire forecast, now foreseeing a 40% decline in the nationās gross domestic product for the second quarter and a surge in Aprilās unemployment rate to 20% with 25 million jobs lost.
So in April, it can be as high as 20% and possibly rising.
Buckle up.
The Great Depression saw U.S. unemployment hit a peak of nearly 25%ā¦
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The lows will be backā¦patience 
Seems like a good time for a wise reminder. Around 5 minutes in comes the wise old words.
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āThe individual investor can beat the pros at their own game - because the game is rigged in favour of the amateurā
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Is this is the future? PG-13 content.
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Very interesting times - the recession will probably be deeper and steeper than the great depression, but will it last as long?
Things that are very similar:
- Preceded by a long period of exuberance and asset inflation
- Fraudulent companies ( e.g. wework ) being launched and sold to investors
- Unemployment sharply rising as companies seek to protect themselves
- Market crashing
Things that are very different:
- The trigger was not a fall in confidence but a pandemic
- There wasnāt a massive flood of euphoric retail investors prior to the bust as in 1929 or 2000
- The government response has been massive coordinated global injections of cash, support for companies and unemployed by printing and borrowing vast amounts, this is very different to the response in 1929
Itāll be interesting to see it play out, but it seems to me we may if weāre lucky see a different outcome due to the very different response and confidence returning quicker - we might see another massive asset bubble for example as after 2008, and/or a quicker return to normal within a year or so as large companies and markets see the virus as a transitory thing which only lasts a year and leads to relatively limited deaths.
IMO it all depends on how long lockdowns last - if just 2 months companies can survive on bridge loans, rehire their employees after and continue without too much debt and the economy stutters but doesnāt die, if longer all bets are off, unemployment is real and lasting and the consequences severe as companies contract, demand collapses and secondary effects hit other industries.
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The real news about the economy and the markets starting to trickle outā¦hold your hats folks.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.ccn.com/dow-jones-to-plunge-50-despite-bounce-research-warns/
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Charlie and Warren limbering up?
Eventbrite is a listed company.
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Ray DalĆo thoughts. Interesting watch.
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I usually spend Ā£30 a day on food. Leave the office for lunch and usually get a decent burger or a quick fiver guys. Then on the way home Iāll order a Chinese or a nandos.
It would also cost me Ā£17 for the daily parking.
Now Iām living off steaks and vegetables, which is about Ā£8 per day.
If youāre making money in the market then youāre a professional.
I have close friends who work in wealth management for very rich individuals. Iād say in better at investing than they are.
Itās probably in the food supply chain already:
Meanwhile:
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ā¦10% surely? 
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