Could it be that they obliterate all the wild valuations that get bandied about @saf? Crumbs this is far too cynical for a glorious Saturday afternoon.
Hope Freetrade’s indirect costs will one day become positive
Did you notice in year 5, they predict less users than the 10 million they say they’ll have elsewhere in the pitch deck.
Someone might want to check to see if any ex-Conviviality people are involved?!
But in all seriousness, has this been raised on their discussion board? And with Seedrs? For some reason they don’t appear in Seedrs when I log in.
Ooops, added extra zeros where should not have…
Thanks for correcting!
@saf unless I’m missing something fundamental, indirect costs are accounted as cash outflows, so if this is reduced due to some subsidy arrangement this could only ever drop to zero, and not a positive sum. If this subsidy was a net revenue contributor, this would surely be accounted for as a cash inflow, and therefore treated as revenue? I don’t have access to the deck so I don’t know what, if any assumptions have been included with the financials.
If we take Y3 in the slide @Cgwinning posted as an example, the biggest here is that if the stated indirect costs are indeed counted as a cash outflow the actual EBITDA is 1668, and not 8578 as claimed.
Someone please correct me if I’m missing something here, or I’m looking at this with too heavy an emphasis on corporate finance conventions…but that’s a pretty big modelling error, and is huge change in forecasted performance.
cough Bargain Booze cough
@saf thanks for the update! Not sure I am any clearer on their position though?
This is painful to read. Crowdfunding gets a bad rap in many circles and this is why.
I feel for Mark and Dabbl here, who probably relied on a qualified accountant to put together credible 5-year projections to explain their vision in numbers. If you correct the indirect costs, £14m EBITDA in 2023 still looks pretty good!
But seriously, everyone makes mistakes guys.
Everyone makes mistakes but we can’t expect crowdfunders to be very forgiving. Like in most real world scenarios there needs to be a price to pay for mistakes in order for the system to work.
The crowdfunding ecosystem needs the diligent, cynical, forensic type to call stuff out. It’s a big part of keeping people honest. I’m never one for delving into the detail myself but I’m a lot more comfortable in the knowledge I’m investing alongside people who are, and I piggy back off a lot of the Q&A.
Responses I have read to ‘unfair’ questions have convinced to me to invest in the past.
This is a general comment, haven’t looked at the Dabbl stuff.
Amen And it’s one of the strengths of the crowd, especially in an investment space where all sorts of claims and forecasts can be made with little to no investor recourse if claims are found to be, umm, inaccurate(?) or if forecasts are wildly missed.
I think the majority of people know early stage / seed investing carries a very high risk, but it doesn’t mean those seeking funding shouldn’t be held to account or are beyond scrutiny, after all who needs who? I’d like to think input from the crowd helps keep those pencils nice and sharp.
Cheers for posting that update Chris, makes a lot more sense than the previous (now deleted?) reply @saf uploaded.
@cte I deleted my comments yesterday after Adam’s comment as he made a very valid point.
It also reminded me of some other companies who have made mistakes in their forecasts, it happens.
Plus it made me think how foolish you’d be to try and intentionally claim certain things in your forecasts given a certain kind of crowd investor reads the forecast.
There’s always going to be someone who tries though. That’s a certainty.
I also got an email on that, looks like it’s a promotion for December only, perhaps for people who registered but haven’t opened accounts
Be careful. First Gazette notice for compulsory strike-off on Companies House.
“unless cause is shown to the contrary, at the expiration of 2 months from the above date [18 Dec 2018] the name of DABBL GROUP LIMITED will be struck off the register and the company will be dissolved”
What does that actually mean and why? Sounds ominous
I believe it’s because their confirmation statement is currently overdue.
That happened to a company I used to work for. Our accountant said X had been filed, but it hadn’t. Lesson: always check that it’s been filed