Freetrade share price 📈

(230/150) X 2.51 is all you need to know.

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we must have used different GBP/USD lel but i agree with your approaches

Confirmed as £3.77 in The Times.

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Time to check how Freetrade’s share price is growing and compounding.

Price Date
Round 1 £0.079561 Sep 2016
Round 2 £0.15311 Apr 2017
Round 3 £0.521053 Jun 2018
Round 4 £0.84324 May 2019
Series A £0.84324 May 2019
Round 5 £0.956004 Aug 2019
Round 6 £2.51 May 2020
Round 7 £2.51 Aug 2020
Series B £3.77 Nov 2020

When calculating the CAGR I’ve followed the calendar years to determine the number of periods. Compounded rate (CAGR) calculated when there are a minimum of two periods between financing rounds only.

So from Round 1 to Rounds 4 and 5 and Series A we have 3 periods; and from Round 1 to Rounds 6 and 7 and Series B we have 4 periods.

Series B was announced in March 2021, but the price seems to reflect values for the end of 2020. If this assumption is incorrect I’ll amend the Series B to 5 periods.

From Round 1

Round 1 to Round 2
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £0.15311
Growth - 92.4435% :rocket:

Round 1 to Round 3
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £0.521053
Growth - 554.91% :rocket:
CAGR - 155.91% :repeat:

Round 1 to Round 4
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 959.866% :rocket:
CAGR - 119.66% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 1 to Series A
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 959.866% :rocket:
CAGR - 119.66% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 1 to Round 5
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £0.956004
Growth - 1101.6% :rocket:
CAGR - 129.04% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 1 to Round 6
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 3054.81% :rocket:
CAGR - 137.00% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 1 to Round 7
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 3054.81% :rocket:
CAGR - 137.00% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 1 to Series B
£0.079561 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 4638.5% :rocket:
CAGR - 162.37% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

From Round 2

Round 2 to Round 3
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £0.521053
Growth - 240.313% :rocket:

Round 2 to Round 4
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 450.741% :rocket:
CAGR - 134.68% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 2 to Series A
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 450.741% :rocket:
CAGR - 134.68% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 2 to Round 5
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £0.956004
Growth - 524.39% :rocket:
CAGR - 149.88% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 2 to Round 6
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 1539.34% :rocket:
CAGR - 154.03% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 2 to Round 7
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 1539.34% :rocket:
CAGR - 154.03% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 2 to Series B
£0.15311 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 2362.28% :rocket:
CAGR - 190.92% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

From Round 3

Round 3 to Round 4
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 61.8338% :rocket:

Round 3 to Series A
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £0.84324
Growth - 61.8338% :rocket:

Round 3 to Round 5
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £0.956004
Growth - 83.4754% :rocket:

Round 3 to Round 6
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 381.717% :rocket:
CAGR - 119.48% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 3 to Round 7
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 381.717% :rocket:
CAGR - 119.48% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Round 3 to Series B
£0.521053 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 623.535% :rocket:
CAGR - 168.99% :chart_with_upwards_trend:

From Round 4 and Series A (Assuming they are the same price per share)

Round 4/Series A to Round 5
£0.84324 :arrow_right: £0.956004
Growth - 13.3727% :rocket:

Round 4/Series A to Round 6
£0.84324 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 197.661% :rocket:

Round 4/Series A to Round 7
£0.84324 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 197.661% :rocket:

Round 4/Series A to Series B
£0.84324 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 347.085% :rocket:

From Round 5

Round 5 to Round 6
£0.956004 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 162.551% :rocket:

Round 5 to Round 7
£0.956004 :arrow_right: £2.51
Growth - 162.551% :rocket:

Round 5 to Series B
£0.956004 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 294.35% :rocket:

From Rounds 6 and 7 to Series B

Rounds 6 and 7 to Series B
£2.51 :arrow_right: £3.77
Growth - 50.1992% :rocket:

22 Likes

Spot on,I was just about to post that myself :+1::flushed::grinning:

1 Like

Is it too early to speculate on the upcoming Crowdfunding round 8?

I had some fun putting together the below history. Who wants to voice their guess at the Round 8 share price and pre-money valuation for the next round anticipated in September?

17 Likes

Over £5 would be nice but not too nice as I want to buy more shares in R8

I think given the increase in user numbers during the Series B, a £5 share price has already sailed, but let’s see.

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Just realised that R3 was > 3 years ago now, freeing up the EIS restrictions. Time flies …

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Hopefully looking at a :unicorn: :star:

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I think that’s possible, especially if Freetrade has managed to launch into a couple of the EU countries at that point (I would expect > 1M customers at that time).

I’m not sure I agree with their valuations, but with Trade Republic at multiple billions, and other fintech’s like Curve and Primary Bid at hundreds of millions - it’s quite possible that Freetrade will be a unicorn at that point (well I’m hoping so!).

FT should be almost certainly at £11+ for this round.

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I’d like to hope. Which leads to another question - will we see a stock split to continue to allow investors to invest “as little as £10” or will there be a higher minimum. Not sure they can issue fractions?

My guess:

Valuation = £678,751,560
Share price = £10.72

All good fun

4 Likes

Approximate users at issue date 637,000 BUT the share price was agreed in December when there was about 300,000 users.
So by the time September comes Freetrade will have close on 1 million so I’m taking a guess the share price will be £10-£12

It’s obviously fun and interesting to guess when everyone is long (owns) the shares. Obviously the price is higher. The question is, where would a guy you met on the street buy the shares. Where can you sell it to your friend and where to your neighbour? And not only that, where would you buy it yourself? If someone thinks it will be £10, I will sell 50,000 shares at £7. It would be worth it to sell your house because you wont get that return anywhere else in the world (more than 100% annualised). The question is not where you think they should sell, but where would you be happy to buy more and put more than 50% of your annual income to buy.

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Thanks, I had included that detail in column 4 “users at pitch date”: 283,700

I went conservative by taking latest user count and adding latest daily average new users up to September 1. Many variables, but should be somewhere between 850k and 1m+ users I guess.

5 Likes

Thanks for posting that chart,it’s great. I overlooked the 283,800 :+1::grinning:

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Not sure I agree with exactly what is being said here.
You are right that we are all happily speculating on the possible share price/valuation because we all have a vested interest in the company.
However, I think the suggestion of ‘where would the man in the street buy stock’ doesnt quite stack up. The reason there is so much dialogue is that since the Series B the neobroker sector has gone gangbusters. Trade Republic had a raise in April 2020(?) and then a massive Series C just now that boosted the valuation almost 9x. Same story with Scaleable (?) just now with a $180m raise at an incredibly lofty valuation. You, me and the man in the street would never have put such a value on Freetrade or any of its competitors. Equally, we arent going to raise a quantum of $900m or $180m so we arent really part of the process in my opinion. We are price takers.
I would love to buy your 50,000 shares at £7 a pop, but dont have that sort of money, and regardless of how optimistic I am about it, dont think I would ever sell my house to finance such a purchase, or invest 50% of my annual income on it.

If we think that Freetrade should be valued along similar lines to Trade Republic and Scaleable, then the next number is huge, potentially way beyond £1bn. If it isnt to be valued along similar lines, I would love to understand a lot more why this is the case.

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I would really like to understand the gap in valuation between Trade Republic (just over a million user / 5.3b$ valuation) and Freetrade (just shy of a million users in septembre / valuation tbd).

Pre-money valuation of Freetrade should be around the 3 or 4 billion dollar mark. If not my question is where is the catch? What is Trade Republic doing that we are not? What are we not seeing that investors noticed?

Edit : One big issue also is the recent second market sell. It will be tough for people who sold this week at 3.5ish a share if suddenly, in September the valuation hits something ridiculous in Trade Republic’s ball park around 40£ a share…

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