This would be a pretty disappointing valuation outcome if true in my opinion.
Assuming that is correct, I plugged the rough user numbers from December into my sheet and £283m popped out. Considering EToro and Bux have had big raises since then I wasn’t actually too far off, and more importantly next round valuation will be much higher with double the users! (eg £580m if they opened a round today) People shouldn’t be too worried.
Exactly, share price should be calculated on the pre money valuation in both rounds.
(NB: post money valuation might be higher but the number of shares increased because new shares are issued. They will exactly offset each other and you end up with the same share price)
When the money comes in, new shares are issued. The total amount of shares times the share price would then give us the post-money valuation, which we would use when calculating the increase in share price for the next round
When the money comes in the valuation increases. But there are also more shares now. So the share price stays the same.
No, pre-money this round compared to post-money last round. And they issued some more shares in the meantime too.
Yes, exactly. Therefore, we want to compare the pre-money in this round with the post-money in the last round as those two numbers are based on the same amount of shares
That’s true but don’t forget employee share options.
The VC raise numbers were based on the numbers BEFORE GAMESTOP so the numbers/valuation is already well outdated. Whatever was agreed then stick another 150-200 million on the valuation TODAY. I would like to also point out that I know f**k all
I see. That makes sense. Thanks!
Very disappointing valuation numbers.
I think FT got a very nice deal. Btw, my numbers work out as below
Post money $366m, with GBP/USD = 1.385 means ~£264m
Pre money I assume $366-69m, with GBP/USD = 1.385 means £214m
Last post money £150m and share price £2.51, so now share price should be in the ballpark of 2.51 * (214/150) = £3.58
And this is without considering the 600+k users. Seems good to me man.
Also, at some point valuation will not be directly related to users but to actual revenues per year. You cannot have valuations of 500x the revenues for example.
(230/150) X 2.51 is all you need to know.
we must have used different GBP/USD lel but i agree with your approaches
Confirmed as £3.77 in The Times.
Time to check how Freetrade’s share price is growing and compounding.
| Price | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | £0.079561 | Sep 2016 |
| Round 2 | £0.15311 | Apr 2017 |
| Round 3 | £0.521053 | Jun 2018 |
| Round 4 | £0.84324 | May 2019 |
| Series A | £0.84324 | May 2019 |
| Round 5 | £0.956004 | Aug 2019 |
| Round 6 | £2.51 | May 2020 |
| Round 7 | £2.51 | Aug 2020 |
| Series B | £3.77 | Nov 2020 |
When calculating the CAGR I’ve followed the calendar years to determine the number of periods. Compounded rate (CAGR) calculated when there are a minimum of two periods between financing rounds only.
So from Round 1 to Rounds 4 and 5 and Series A we have 3 periods; and from Round 1 to Rounds 6 and 7 and Series B we have 4 periods.
Series B was announced in March 2021, but the price seems to reflect values for the end of 2020. If this assumption is incorrect I’ll amend the Series B to 5 periods.
From Round 1
Round 1 to Round 2
£0.079561 
£0.15311
Growth - 92.4435% 
Round 1 to Round 3
£0.079561 £0.521053
Growth - 554.91%
CAGR - 155.91% 
Round 1 to Round 4
£0.079561 £0.84324
Growth - 959.866%
CAGR - 119.66% 
Round 1 to Series A
£0.079561 £0.84324
Growth - 959.866%
CAGR - 119.66%
Round 1 to Round 5
£0.079561 £0.956004
Growth - 1101.6%
CAGR - 129.04%
Round 1 to Round 6
£0.079561 £2.51
Growth - 3054.81%
CAGR - 137.00%
Round 1 to Round 7
£0.079561 £2.51
Growth - 3054.81%
CAGR - 137.00%
Round 1 to Series B
£0.079561 £3.77
Growth - 4638.5%
CAGR - 162.37%
From Round 2
Round 2 to Round 3
£0.15311 £0.521053
Growth - 240.313%
Round 2 to Round 4
£0.15311 £0.84324
Growth - 450.741%
CAGR - 134.68%
Round 2 to Series A
£0.15311 £0.84324
Growth - 450.741%
CAGR - 134.68%
Round 2 to Round 5
£0.15311 £0.956004
Growth - 524.39%
CAGR - 149.88%
Round 2 to Round 6
£0.15311 £2.51
Growth - 1539.34%
CAGR - 154.03%
Round 2 to Round 7
£0.15311 £2.51
Growth - 1539.34%
CAGR - 154.03%
Round 2 to Series B
£0.15311 £3.77
Growth - 2362.28%
CAGR - 190.92%
From Round 3
Round 3 to Round 4
£0.521053 £0.84324
Growth - 61.8338%
Round 3 to Series A
£0.521053 £0.84324
Growth - 61.8338%
Round 3 to Round 5
£0.521053 £0.956004
Growth - 83.4754%
Round 3 to Round 6
£0.521053 £2.51
Growth - 381.717%
CAGR - 119.48%
Round 3 to Round 7
£0.521053 £2.51
Growth - 381.717%
CAGR - 119.48%
Round 3 to Series B
£0.521053 £3.77
Growth - 623.535%
CAGR - 168.99%
From Round 4 and Series A (Assuming they are the same price per share)
Round 4/Series A to Round 5
£0.84324 £0.956004
Growth - 13.3727%
Round 4/Series A to Round 6
£0.84324 £2.51
Growth - 197.661%
Round 4/Series A to Round 7
£0.84324 £2.51
Growth - 197.661%
Round 4/Series A to Series B
£0.84324 £3.77
Growth - 347.085%
From Round 5
Round 5 to Round 6
£0.956004 £2.51
Growth - 162.551%
Round 5 to Round 7
£0.956004 £2.51
Growth - 162.551%
Round 5 to Series B
£0.956004 £3.77
Growth - 294.35%
From Rounds 6 and 7 to Series B
Rounds 6 and 7 to Series B
£2.51 £3.77
Growth - 50.1992%
Spot on,I was just about to post that myself 
Is it too early to speculate on the upcoming Crowdfunding round 8?
I had some fun putting together the below history. Who wants to voice their guess at the Round 8 share price and pre-money valuation for the next round anticipated in September?
Over £5 would be nice but not too nice as I want to buy more shares in R8
I think given the increase in user numbers during the Series B, a £5 share price has already sailed, but let’s see.
Just realised that R3 was > 3 years ago now, freeing up the EIS restrictions. Time flies …
