Hopefully looking at a 
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I think that’s possible, especially if Freetrade has managed to launch into a couple of the EU countries at that point (I would expect > 1M customers at that time).
I’m not sure I agree with their valuations, but with Trade Republic at multiple billions, and other fintech’s like Curve and Primary Bid at hundreds of millions - it’s quite possible that Freetrade will be a unicorn at that point (well I’m hoping so!).
FT should be almost certainly at £11+ for this round.
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I’d like to hope. Which leads to another question - will we see a stock split to continue to allow investors to invest “as little as £10” or will there be a higher minimum. Not sure they can issue fractions?
My guess:
Valuation = £678,751,560
Share price = £10.72
All good fun
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Approximate users at issue date 637,000 BUT the share price was agreed in December when there was about 300,000 users.
So by the time September comes Freetrade will have close on 1 million so I’m taking a guess the share price will be £10-£12
It’s obviously fun and interesting to guess when everyone is long (owns) the shares. Obviously the price is higher. The question is, where would a guy you met on the street buy the shares. Where can you sell it to your friend and where to your neighbour? And not only that, where would you buy it yourself? If someone thinks it will be £10, I will sell 50,000 shares at £7. It would be worth it to sell your house because you wont get that return anywhere else in the world (more than 100% annualised). The question is not where you think they should sell, but where would you be happy to buy more and put more than 50% of your annual income to buy.
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Thanks, I had included that detail in column 4 “users at pitch date”: 283,700
I went conservative by taking latest user count and adding latest daily average new users up to September 1. Many variables, but should be somewhere between 850k and 1m+ users I guess.
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Thanks for posting that chart,it’s great. I overlooked the 283,800 
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Not sure I agree with exactly what is being said here.
You are right that we are all happily speculating on the possible share price/valuation because we all have a vested interest in the company.
However, I think the suggestion of ‘where would the man in the street buy stock’ doesnt quite stack up. The reason there is so much dialogue is that since the Series B the neobroker sector has gone gangbusters. Trade Republic had a raise in April 2020(?) and then a massive Series C just now that boosted the valuation almost 9x. Same story with Scaleable (?) just now with a $180m raise at an incredibly lofty valuation. You, me and the man in the street would never have put such a value on Freetrade or any of its competitors. Equally, we arent going to raise a quantum of $900m or $180m so we arent really part of the process in my opinion. We are price takers.
I would love to buy your 50,000 shares at £7 a pop, but dont have that sort of money, and regardless of how optimistic I am about it, dont think I would ever sell my house to finance such a purchase, or invest 50% of my annual income on it.
If we think that Freetrade should be valued along similar lines to Trade Republic and Scaleable, then the next number is huge, potentially way beyond £1bn. If it isnt to be valued along similar lines, I would love to understand a lot more why this is the case.
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I would really like to understand the gap in valuation between Trade Republic (just over a million user / 5.3b$ valuation) and Freetrade (just shy of a million users in septembre / valuation tbd).
Pre-money valuation of Freetrade should be around the 3 or 4 billion dollar mark. If not my question is where is the catch? What is Trade Republic doing that we are not? What are we not seeing that investors noticed?
Edit : One big issue also is the recent second market sell. It will be tough for people who sold this week at 3.5ish a share if suddenly, in September the valuation hits something ridiculous in Trade Republic’s ball park around 40£ a share…
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Payment for order flow is more profitable… but that doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do
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This is really useful, thanks for the hard work.
I guess a valuation discussion centres around number of users, number of active users, AuA, revenues etc., and the relative levels growth we would assign to any of these. You have any initial thoughts on any of those? Or a counter to how you would look to value such a tricky moving target right now?
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Jibou. That is absolutely 100% correct, and a point I was about to make myself.
I am pretty sure that noone could have known what was about to be announced regarding these other neobrokers, but it might be a bitter pill for those that just sold in secondary - although who knows when any of us might get an opportunity to get secondary liquidity again…
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My current guess is £12.50 at roughly 750k users.
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I posted lots of messages advising that the £3.77 share price was actually double or more. I think most of the people who sold their shares at £3.77 were either happy with the return and/or needed the money. I think that is why only 5 million was cashed in,when they had allocated 15 million
Completely agree. A bird in the hand…
It was very well flagged by the community that just in terms of user numbers, things had moved on between Series B being agreed and announced.
I’m hoping for £4.20 at the next round, then it can go to £20 a share.
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£9-£9.50 at £690m valuation. That’s my guess.
Just a reminder of the price that I’m holding out for… DM me with offers of at least that amount. Thanks.
Edit: Update - no DMs received yet.
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