I believe that there are two factors that compliment the actual users figure: the number of active users and the assets under management. If the ratio of the active users over total users grows and the assets under management have grown exponentially, then the company can justify a larger valuation. We don’t have these numbers, so we can only guess. But I believe the company does really well on both frontiers.
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People keep asking about AUM. Whilst this measure is very relevant to legacy brokers who charge a % fee on AUM. I’m not sure its the most relevant measure for FT as its revenues streams are based on a freemium subscription model - so therefore % of users paying the various subscriptions is more relevant. The second revenue stream is a charge on currency conversion on purchasing foreign denominated stocks - this is a little related to AUM but more related to frequency of trading. But let me know if I’m missing something.
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I think it’s a good measure as it’s calculation affects the average balance within a user account, the higher the number the more income freetrade would generate in the lifetime of the user. And the higher AUM creates a strong sense of security in the view of potential customers
And once people start investing and the balance will hopefully keep rising people will start to see the benefits of the Isa and sipps.
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I think that AUM and AUM per user are important metrics but the key parameter are the total revenues.
Listed brokers/neo brokers trade at very different valuation as % of AUM (from the 5% of Hargreaves to the 35% of Robinhood) and so it will be difficult to compare Freetrade to them in term of valuation.
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HL is a mature platform, RH is a growing platform with a much younger demographic. I suspect both trade at a fairly similar discounted rate to estimated future assets and the current discrepancy reflects not a mispricing but instead the anticipation that RH is much more likely to significantly increase AUA (through user acquisition and demographic shift).
I think the same is true for Freetrade, even if FT wasn’t growing active users (which clearly it is) I’d expect it to trade at well above HL’s rate just because as its users age assets will grow rapidly. Also there is more potential for cross selling to bring in assets (e.g. SIPP)
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Thanks @Cameron
Cash ISAs with a huge presence in spite of the returns they provide 
On the bright side much can be changed and accomplished
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Is that share price an accurate estimate? If so, FT is one of my best investments 
I bought in July 2019 and have 3139 shares.
I was updating my Crowdcube spreadsheet today so came on here looking for an estimated share price. You’ve made me smile!
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There are many estimates for what the valuation and share price ought to be for the business, but I think at the end of the day it really depends on the team’s ability to negotiate with potential investors that provides a fair value for the business while providing these investors with opportunities to participate in further potential uplift in share price / valuation.
Feel free to pick any range that you see being thrown out so far in this thread - it could be £11/share as much as it can be £25/share and we will not know for sure until the price has been announced.
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I also remember that on the forum we widely overestimated the expected price of the Series B round…
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My prediction is $ unicorn status but not £ unicorn status for Series C / R7 crowdfund.
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That is always a risk on this forum, I think we are all guilty 
Personally I’ve made my valuations more and more conservative over time. I’m quite confident that the value per user for crowdfunding would be above £900, but Series C would likely be cheaper 
Depends what comes first, by the start up of the AMAs crowdfunding could be around the corner…
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Exactly, I’m now cynical because of the £3.7711 round regarding any share price value.
If we want to raise based on 1.1million users then we don’t want to see a funding round until April next year in my opinion.
I would tread safely and assume we’ve given away our shares cheap.
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Or we should aim for a price that is stupidly impossible and then be pleasantly surprised when it matches our real estimate 
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Ok so based on all this talk I’m going super aggressive stretch target of £3.78/share 
Personally think we will see £10ish…
Given all the shxt that has gone on in our world / lives over the past 18 months, this is a very good problem to have 
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I feel another competition coming, guess FT share price at the next crowdfunding round even though we don’t know when that will exactly happen…
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I like the sound of this competition-
- One guess each
- One person per price
- Price is right rules (closest without going over)
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This sounds fun. I’m going with £11.92
£12.05