Honey, Brexit and Information

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Honey the newsletter not the delicious bee vomit. :honeybee: Sorry to disappoint.

Todays honey is short and sweet and included a small bit on FTSE and Brexit.

Is this a classic Santa Rally?

The FTSE has been edging higher since the start of the month on hopes Boris might finally pull a Brexit trade deal out of the bag. He’s off to Brussels today, everyone cross your fingers.

But after all the posturing, it looks like the UK is willing to compromise on a few things.

So far, Michael Gove has overseen a pullback from the more controversial parts of its Internal Market Bill and more clarification on the Irish border issue (although I can’t see much evidence of clarity).

It’s important to remember these talks are separate from the post-Brexit trade negotiations still on the table but progress could grease the wheels for Boris and co.

Don’t hold your breath though.

The deadline is 31 December and it would fit with the rest of the year’s madness to keep us all in suspense until the last second.

@DanLane forgive me, touching on politics i think isnt an easy task and you’ve no requirement to hide bias, but i think you missed some interesting points and a surprising pessimistic view (especially after the positive week we’ve had)

On the general political view, the UK has always had room to manoeuvre on certain points, as have the EU, both will shift slightly to fit a deal which is just the nature of politics, i felt this was a bit missed.

But I really just wanted to point out this part

It’s important to remember these talks are separate from the post-Brexit trade negotiations still on the table but progress could grease the wheels for Boris and co.

Don’t hold your breath though

We’ve agreed and/or signed 9 agreements and deals just in the last 9 days. Plus an agreement on principle for EU-UK WA

We now have trade deals with 55+ countries, and 3 mutual recognition agreements. Several agreements are in discussion and expected to be completed without much issue, several before the end of the year. And several new important free trade deals are in discussion including Australia, New Zealand and the USA with a progression to joining the CPTPP.

I feel like pessimism got the better of this part of the news letter, especially after a week of deal after deal after deal from Liz Truss.

Anyway rant over, good work on the news letter overall :smiley:

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First of all, thanks for reading!

And thanks for engaging, I take your points re: the positivity of the recent deals.

I think the broader frustration of the market, and something adding to the FTSE’s inability to shake Brexit worries, is that this could all have come much earlier in the year and the gamesmanship has become a bit annoying.

I’m not overly pessimistic, just conscious that there’s still bound to be a huge amount of back and forth before the final bell.

Thanks again for getting in touch!
Dan

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Four years of essentially indecisions and no finalisation seems to take its toll, you’re not wrong about the end of the line last minute deals.

I guess im trying to take the positive out of everything I can :smiley: Very hopeful for a good 2021

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Very interesting discussion points. Thanks for sharing

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Thanks for looking to the positives, I think I need to start thinking similarly! Here’s to a better 2021.
Dan

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It’s not possible to draw any conclusions with FTSE and end to transition period. After the Brexit vote the FTSE went up over several days after the initial immediate shock. It all depends on movement in the £. If £ goes down drastically then could be good for FTSE 100 as many companies get a large share of their earnings in other currencies. Not advice but just a view given I’ve often heard the opposite recently.

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