Netflix (NFLX) 📺 - Share Chat

point 4 was always the the big one for me. Netflix did the leg work, figuring out how to deliver HD video to tens of thousands of people, how to present the app, etc.
The others sat back and watched to see how it’s done.
Netflix doesn’t have the cash to get through a bad year (saying that, the others probably don’t either now) and it’s income comes only from it’s streaming service, where as most of the others have fingers in other pies.

@manoadamro Do you reckon its content is a differentiator though? Not in the same way as Disney, but it has a lot of great shows on.

I did read somewhere that Friends has a Pareto effect on viewership, and that will go away. I’d investigate that if I was to invest in this company.

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Has anybody heard or read of any ambitious plans by any business to try and tie a few of the streaming platforms together as a bundle at sell at a discounted amount. It would be a tough thing to pull off I know but it must have been considered, I think there would be plenty of interest.

Sure, but how many great shows are Netflix originals? There are a lot of duds for each hit. Is that sustainable without third party content? Even the BBC are considering a premium streaming service instead of the licence fee.

If that’s true about friends: this might be of interest to you

I think that would be awesome, although I think that would be the final nail for Netflix imo

Disney+ other revenue comes from segments most of which may not see any traffic for long time.

2019 annual report - https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2020/01/2019-Annual-Report.pdf

NYT:

Amazon need Prime Video to keep its Prime users happy.

So, maybe, Amazon is better positioned.

Netflix had $5 billion as of the end of last year. And it’s long-term debt was much lower than Disney’s.

2019 annual report - https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001065280/4b247013-f3f1-4881-92d2-13088d2bd8d7.pdf

$5bn will allow them to make content for approximately 4 months.

This was my thinking of Netflix before the covid fun started, I would have said Disney was in a better position, but after covid, and after using their service, maybe not. (not suggesting the service is bad, just seems to serve a different demographic)
Maybe it’ll be Amazon, maybe HBO, I don’t know. I would be genuinely surprised if Netflix is still on top in 5 years time though

Netflix could temporarily switch to just buying older content or extending rights on existing blockbusters, while figuring out how to continue making animated movies with studios as they’re WFH?

If Nasa’s engineers can operate the rover on Mars whle WFH, maybe so can Netflix?

Perhaps, YouTube is better positioned among them all - TV and other mediums post their content there regularly, including news. YouTube is a juggenaut. They don’t have to create any content themselves. The ad business will be affected but the business is run on scalable GCP cloud and they have Google’s cash - it’s a winner.

Scalable pure tech > content-creating tech.

In comparison, TikTok is hiring by the thousands and Instagram is probably more popular than ever.

What do you think?

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Yeah, Youtube is the real winner here.
No one has to pay for it and creators are under pressure to make content to keep everyone entertained while they have nothing but time, soaking up all the juicy ad revenue.

What makes Disney superior as a company is that it has recurring revenue such as merchandise and parks. If Netflix can do that one day, that will extend the longevity of the company and make it less dependent on the one-off content such as Stranger Things and Crown or Tiger King.

That’s an interesting thought :thinking:

Any call on Netflix? Does it look like a good one to buy as the results are due soon?

No investment advice is allowed in this forum I’m afraid.

If you’re day-trading, it’s probably down to the momentum and riding it (good luck being up against the algos).

If you’re value investing, you may want to check their core financials and metrics.

Nothing like the WTH ratios of the stay-at-home stocks:

(https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/key-statistics?p=NFLX)

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Thanks. I think I could have worded my question differently. I have seen people discussing about different companies so thought if any one has done deep dive on it :slight_smile:

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Netflix does require healthy capital markets to fund its current plans. However, COVID-19 and a follow-on recession should deliver stable, if not accelerated, subscriber growth to sell to would-be bondholders. In addition, interest rates are now lower than they’ve been in a decade while Netflix’s credit rating is at its highest point in years. Furthermore, Netflix’s debt-critics typically overlook the manageability of its liabilities. For example, close to 50% of all content obligations are due within the next 12 months. Netflix, which is still growing revenues at $4B+ per year, will not struggle to make these payments. In addition, more than 75% of its debt obligations occur beyond 2025, with annual payments peaking at less than $1B before then. Where companies get into trouble is when they have a large maturity tower that occurs near the start of a downturn. In Netflix’s case, front-end maturities are fairly low.

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Double the new paying users in the first quarter, but Netflix originals mostly put on hold.

They have admitted it is a odd situation and next quarter is back to 7.2m~ net paying users target (think they got just over 15m paying users this quarter.)

Another interesting point, they have changed how they calculate views/watched where a user has to watch at least 2 minutes before it’s counted. This means a rough 35% drop in watched numbers but it does seem a better figure to use going forward.

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Your subscription is autocancelled if you don’t use it for two years.

This is the kind of thing that companies with a modern mindset do.

Any investors that have a view?

In a corporate blog post Thursday, Netflix’s Eddy Wu laid out the company’s new plan, which sounds like it should be some kind of trap but is not.

If you don’t watch anything on Netflix for a year after you join, the company will send you an email asking if you want to keep your membership. You’ll also get a message if you go two years without watching anything on Netflix at any point. If you write back to say, “Yes, please keep charging me for all these seasons of Riverdale I’m ignoring,” nothing changes.

If you ask to cancel or don’t write back at all, Netflix automatically stops charging you. Change your mind within 10 months, and you can return to the service with all your settings intact, just as you left them when you deactivated.

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