US Election

Thoughts on the recent Axios Trump Interview, found it shocking myself. Biden must be jumping with joy after that trump disaster.

Interview available below:

Axios Interview

The Financial Times are updating their predictions multiple times a day: https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

Seems to be increasing for Biden, but polls have to be taken with a pinch of salt but my money would be on Biden.:laughing:

The problem with the US system is that even 40% of votes can get you elected. :man_shrugging:
The interview is shocking when applying normal standards, but for Trump it’s just consistent.

Betting odds are perhaps the simplest way to see election changes (as it involves putting your money where your mouth this).

It wasn’t long ago that Trump was favoured in the betting odds, now Biden has a sizeable lead.

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Tony Blair won the 2005 election with only 35.2% of the vote, at the time the smallest share in electoral history.

This is an ongoing issue in western democracies. How do you drive engagement? Do you make it mandatory? If it is mandatory, is it fair that people who don’t care just vote for one of the major parties?

I was more referring to winner-takes-all, but participation is very relevant as well.

In Brazil, voting is mandatory. That led a lot of people I know to vote for the fascist Bolsonaro even though they despised him. So for A or B elections with only 2 choices, I’d not implement mandatory voting either.
I might be biased, but I am very much happy with the German system, for example.

But any system is better than the US system imho. It shows that it’s 200+ years old.

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Is the reason you’re biased because you’re German? I really like the German system. I think the House of Lords should be replaced with a proportionally elected upper house (still called the House of Lords as it would be a shame to do away with the unique British history). The local MP system is good allowing people to have someone to speak to but we should allow preferential voting so that people can vote for who they truly want (i.e. for myself I would always vote Green but don’t due to being afraid of wasting my vote).

I agree with you about binary elections. Weirdly the US system was designed to ensure the President had next to no power but fast forward to today and the executive power they wield is vastly expanded.

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If your seat is a relatively safe seat then I dont think your wasting your vote as the higher numbers for other parties such as the greens may kick your MPs into leaning more towards that party’s policies.

I think directly electing a president/prime minister is not good as you can get stuck with a cohabitation: a rightwing president and a leftwing parliament or vice versa. A parliamentary system where elected parties have to choose between them who gets to be PM is the best way as it forces parties to find common ground. In Brasil, Bolsonaro does not have to find common ground and that cripples the country.
On the other hand , I am starting to like the first past the post system in the UK as it forces an MP to really fight for his votes. In Belgium there are many 3d rate politicians that get elected because they are on a good place on the party list. The disadvantage is that you really need to invest a lot of time and effort (let alone money) to win a seat.

Texas is a toss-up? Seriously?

These numbers always tighten up considerably in the next few months. No matter how ridiculous the candidate, there’s enough die-hards to make it close.

Still, fingers crossed for Biden. No idea what it will do to the markets though, I don’t actually know his economic policies, but I assume there will be more regulation (which in many cases is warranted).

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Whoever comes next, even if it’s Trump again, is going to be in a bad place. Money printer can’t go brrrr forever - and obviously I’m not talking about support for the people because that’s practically non existent - but those stock market gains can’t keep going up.

Strong commitment to environmental policies, I think the stable predictable hands may calm markets but at the cost of increased taxes on corporations so a trade off. Probably renewables will benefit but only time will tell.

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I still think Trump could win.

Both candidates are terrible.

Obama and Romney are infinitely better than Biden/Trump.

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I’m actually surprised that Biden is the only other option, it’s sad really because Trump is just a nutcase but he might actually win.

Trump will win

His latest campaign tactics are so dirty but it just might get him the vote.

They can? If we become accustomed to interest rates at zero then a P/E ratio of 50 (i.e. an earnings yield of 2%) could become the norm.

Not sure I’d put much trust in Betting odds either. I won a binary spreadbet on the outcome of Brexit, when at the time it was 80/20 against

Depending on when you placed it that could still have been fairly accurate (even if it wasn’t on the day). I don’t think betting odds are perfect but I think they track relatively well.