What is going on today? - Megathread

That’s not quite true. Plenty of schools offer life skills / citizenship classes, and some banks do it as well.

Not perfect but appreciated by the youngsters who get exposed to them.

Don’t be daft, that’s not possible.

This lot aren’t Tories; they’re asset strippers.

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Good morning :sun_with_face: -

As usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :point_down::

Portfolio Construction:

:arrow_forward: New research into the stock-bond correlation

:arrow_forward: How to rebalance a portfolio

:arrow_forward: Banker’s Paradise: Two Easy Ways To Fool Investors

:arrow_forward: Do Stock Outperform T-Bills?

:arrow_forward: The Worst Bond Bear Market Ever Marches On

Active Investing:

:arrow_forward: Listen all the way - Warren ends it epically.

:arrow_forward: SocGen Rogue Trading: “Won’t Somebody Please Think of The Traders?”

:arrow_forward: Risk Parity Investing (BoW 100% Equity Article Mentioned)

ETFs / Brokers

:arrow_forward: BlackRock world ETF flash crash on Deutsche Boerse: A deep dive

:arrow_forward: Trading 212 Review: Pros & Cons

Wealth & Lifestyle:

:arrow_forward: Amundi Research on Decumulation Strategies

:arrow_forward: Great FT Article on “Can you afford to retire early?”

:arrow_forward: How a Pioneering Blackjack Master Beats the Odds of Aging

:arrow_forward: The Top 20 Countries in Debt to China

Have a great Saturday!

Francesca from BoW Team :biking_man: :biking_woman:t3:

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Some AI news, ChatGPT 4o announced - OpenAI releases GPT-4o, a faster model that’s free for all ChatGPT users - The Verge

Some demos of different features on the OpenAI YouTube channel (link below), think the highlight is the two AIs interacting and singing with each other - https://youtu.be/MirzFk_DSiI?si=q-1AIkGy8m3EP3L4

Pretty impressive stuff, maybe an improved Siri is on the cards (with the rumour Apple are in discussions with OpenAI)

Full playlist - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOXw6I10VTv8VOvPNVQ8c4D4NyMRMotXh&si=_YT6nPgcQ28himKe

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Mysterious stock revealed

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An absolutely great interview. Terry Smith explains in detail the kinds of companies he aims to own and the kinds he doesn’t. He explains why he doesn’t invest in Tesla, Nvidia, and other companies. It’s definitely worth reading.

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Good morning :sun_with_face: -

As usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :point_down::

Portfolio Construction:

:arrow_forward: Global ETFs: Amundi challenges Vanguard & iShares!

:arrow_forward: Translating Wall Street Jargon

:arrow_forward: Non-US Portfolios: Multi-asset investing (Amundi Research)

:arrow_forward: Asset class correlations & portfolio construction

:arrow_forward: Why Your Portfolio Should Include Scarce Assets

Active Investing:

:arrow_forward: Real and alternative assets in focus in the strategic asset allocation

:arrow_forward: The Case Against Private Markets

:arrow_forward: Countries With the Highest Rates of Crypto Ownership

:arrow_forward: Eric Crittenden & Jason Buck Explain Why Best Investors Follow the Trends

ETFs / Brokers

:arrow_forward: RUK granting US-listed ETF equivalence more political gesture than meaningful

:arrow_forward: Barclays & HSBC & IG Reviews

Wealth & Lifestyle:

:arrow_forward:Retirement age for those who don’t read BoW

:arrow_forward: Safety First – Retirement Withdrawal Rates

:arrow_forward: How Singapore Got So Crazy Rich

:arrow_forward: The Modern Curse of Overoptimization

Have a great Saturday!

Francesca from BoW Team :biking_man: :biking_woman:t3:

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A summary from Terry Smith investment approach according to his interview (above)

— He doesn’t invest in cyclical industries (companies with good or bad returns depending on the economy. E.g. airlines)

— He aims to invest in companies with a return on capital = 30% (so for every pound of capital owned in the company, 30% of it means profit)

— He seeks companies with a source of growth (high returns + growth = compound)

— He seeks companies that make money with products with a degree of predictability in consumption (repetitive use, routine consumption)

— Last but no least, management team skills (smart people who know how to allocate well the capital)

Terry Smith likes to use the Free Cash Flow Yield (free cash flow / market cap) on valuation, as he explains in this video down below. He seeks FCFY = or above 5%.

I was going to write this down for myself, but I wondered why not write it for everyone. So that’s why I shared this summary. I hope you enjoy it as much as I do :ok_hand:

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Great post. Thanks for sharing :+1:

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Thanks for sharing this. Worth bearing in mind Terry said the following in the interview:

If we get a really good company, we can get returns in excess of 10%. If we get a yield of 4% and a growth rate of 10%, we’ll get 14%, which should beat the index. It does not really matter if the yield is 1% and the growth is 13%, or if we get a yield of 4% and growth of 10%.

It’s a useful way to think about it. I think the 5% he mentioned is more of a goal than an cutoff, otherwise he’s ruling out potential “growthy” winners from his already narrow universe.

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Very good observation. Thank you.

Some analysts have being predicting a market plunge later this year or by the end of 2025 (e.g. here).

Are you preparing for a crash at all?
e.g. S&P 5000 crashes all the way down to 3,600 in a matter of days or weeks.

At present, the only significant measure for me is more cash at hand. Looking into other options, including taking yoga classes :stuck_out_tongue:

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Didn’t they say the same last year?

“(Gary) Shilling is known for correctly identifying the US housing bubble in the mid-2000’s, though most of his consistently bearish views over the past decade have yet to pan out.”

“Hussman is famous for successfully warnings about the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2008 housing market crash, though his consistently bearish predictions since then have yet to fully materialize.”

“Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat.”

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July 5th will be a sad sad day when Labour are in power. RIP :sleepy:

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I’m not politically partisan and I can honestly say that July 5th will be a truly truly beautiful day when this chorus of cow pats are out of power.

:cow: :kiss:

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all cow pats smell the same tho :woozy_face: :poop:

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Will the “F**k Business” era come to an end? We do hope so.

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Things have just been great up until now :face_with_raised_eyebrow: