They wouldn’t buy Spotify, I think - they got their own platform and it’s quite good:
(Source - https://www.statista.com/chart/8399/spotify-apple-music-paid-subscribers/
Peloton costs $2k at least + $3k in the first year in total with the subscription servce, etc. How scalable is it? I’m sure Apple would want to slide their software into Pelotons though, because data is the oil in this century. Also, many people can afford Apple Watch - the best selling high-margin smart watch - and these people don’t even have to like fitness.
Apple may be going after Tile - the maker of stuff trackers (link) with Apple Tag:
I think the idea of Tile is great but Tile’s management missed its opportunity (could’ve been IPOing this year?). The business idea is still extremely great, especially if you travel a lot. Years ago, I successfully tracked my bag somewhere on the East Coast once - it worked better than the airline’s lost luggage system.
In defence of :
- Apple Watch is a billion dollar+ business on its own - wearables, home, accessories brought USD 5.5 billion in sales in the last quarter.
Apple Watch is the best selling smart watch - period.
- “Services” is the second largest business after iPhone - USD 11.5 billion in revenue in the last quarter.
(Source - 10Q)
You can list Apple’s iPad on NASDAQ and it’d be a “better” tech company than any of the newcomers who have iPOed recently.
The iPhone echosystem lock-in is also very strong - it’s hard for people to leave iPhone, even if you switch to Google Pixel with Android 10 (different UI, lack of iMessage, etc).
The differences between the two OSs are becoming small - they are all just copying each other.
Android Studio wants to be more like X Code - if you’re a developer. Kotlin vs Swift.
Never thought I’d see so many people with pricey iPhone X after it was announced a couple of years ago. Apple are masters of distorting reality.
(Source - 10Q
Now, → :
The average phone upgrade cycle is changing not in phone-makers’ favour - definitely a concern for Apple’s largest segment (the iPhone):
(Source - https://ting.com/blog/phone-upgrade-cycle-survey-results/
But Apple has managed to convince the world that paying $1000+ for something we used to pay half that is OK.
Compared to Samsung, Apple is in a league of its own in terms of brand perception. They know how to make psychology work in their favour.
And they know how to manage finances - borrowing at ultra low rates to fund dividends while minimising taxes thanks to the cheap debt.
My concern is what can the ex-COO and now CEO Tim Cook do with innovation, now that Sir Jonny Ive has left and many others have too in the past (one of the chief designers of iPod/iPhone left and founded Nest which was bought by Google).
Another elephant in the room is the state of machine learning (a subset of AI or whatever you want to call it):
Siri is .
Apple bought Siri, popularised the voice assistant thingy, and then god knows what happened. Actually, someone did some research:
And search is everything - ask Amazon, Microsoft (with Microsoft Search and the Alexa tie-up), and the leader - Google (Assistant). They managed to hire a top AI person from the GOOG but you can’t rebuild an AI platform and catch up with Amazon in 1 or even 2 years while the rest of the leading pack are also moving.
Also, Microsoft and its partners have finally started making cheaper and better laptops.
Macs are Apple’s 3rd largest business by revenue after iPhone and Services.
Windows 10 is quite great - it does the job. And, if you like Linux, side-load the open-source OS onto your sleek Acer or HP laptop and it’s still cheaper than a Macbook Pro. If you read some hardware or domain-specific forums, many people are discussing how upgrading to Win10 machines from old MacPros was OK + they saved some money.
The upgrade cycle for laptops is nowhere near the smartphones I think.
Apple has USD 211 billion of cash and marketable securities.
(Source - 10Q
It is still a MOAT.