Brexit


(Chris) #41

Well this is all going splendidly. So pleased that these children are in charge.


(Ryan) #42

I do wonder if Brexit didn’t happen, what would be on the news…

Would news channels even exist anymore? :thinking:


(Kenny Grant) #43

My prediction is something very close to May’s Brexit (70% chance), extension of talks (30%), or no Brexit at all (10%). I’d be surprised by a no deal Brexit as parliament is collectively against it, but we’ll see, I didn’t think people would really vote for Brexit in the first place! Anyone else care to predict an outcome?

Sounds like May will pass the vote of confidence, she’s done so before, and it would require Conservative MPs to break with the party en masse. Previous PMs have left due to shame and fear, she appears to have little of either. Corbyn is so ineffectual he won’t be able to force a GE (about to give May a win tomorrow, straight after her historic defeat), and May will never agree to a referendum, nor is there time. The EU will take it to the wire as usual, so we’ll still be uncertain up to the 29th March, and then we’ll get to do it all again for a minimum of 6 months if they get an extension - oh joy!

The funny thing about the current deal is it’s not even a deal, it’s just a transition to the beginning of negotiations. This is going to last a lifetime.

I’m finding this fascinating to watch on the markets. I feel like a lukewarm Brexit is already priced in, but perhaps people will start to panic again after a few more weeks of the headless chickens we have as politicians. The falling pound means international stocks are almost negatively correlated to bad news. I wonder if global conditions will actually have more impact on UK stocks as well - many ftse companies are global anyway, and the UK market seems to follow trends set by the larger economies of the world. It looks to me like the US shutdown, trade war, massive China slowdown recently, larger war in Ukraine or the Middle East might have more impact than Brexit, which is going to trail on and on and on.


#44

I think she’ll survive the confidence vote.

At the moment it feels like there’s no parl’ty majority for anything at all, which makes things very tricky. And which obviously means that No Deal is the frontrunner because it’s the only outcome that happens automatically.

Delay of A50 requires both unanimous agreement by EU27 (and obv UK Parl’t, which seems barrier enough) and quite a few legal things to get sorted quickly. Also the complication of EU MEP elections fairly soon. So I think it less likely than many think/hope. (Similarly GE and second ref also have difficult political or legislative hurdles.)

What any of it means for the investor is unclear to me, except maybe I’ll steer clear of Ftse funds for a while.


(Vladislav Kozub) #45

That reminds me of Russian parliamentary elections in 2011 when the turnout happened to be 146% :sweat_smile:


Easier to win the vote when it is only your party voting. As it stands, she will need confidence of every single conservative and most DUPs because she is unlikely to get it from Labour or SNP based on Ian Blackford’s very negative sentiment against her.

GE may happen itself within two weeks unless the House will support either May or another Tory government.
And if that will happen, I doubt the public will have much faith in tories. Considering what has been achieved in the last two years.

If the remain option in a (possibly) second referendum will be on the table, I’d be surprised to see the EU reject that opportunity. On the contrary, I think they will gladly extend Article 50 and rely on the British people to make a more informed decision this time. And who knows, maybe we’ll see Farage going for his 5th term as an MEP! :laughing:


(Kenny Grant) #46

Oops :grimacing:

I do hope this happens, I just don’t think May would have offered a vote if she wasn’t confident. She will get all the DUP, they vote as a block. The big risk for her is if the ERG decides to rebel. She will get zero SNP as always, a few labour Brexiters, and then it all comes down to what happens in her party unfortunately as the DUP gives her a decent margin.

I sincerely hope we never hear from Farage again.


(Kenny Grant) #47

Yes very tricky to guess, no deal means a plunge in currency and UK based stocks, but I feel it is unlikely. Any other deal might be a lot less dramatic.


(Georgi) #48

Honestly I have never seen the british parliament so weak. Everyone knows what they don’t want, but no one knows what he wants. In my opinion the whole Brexit vote was a mistake and everyone can thank mr. Farage. I am not british, but it is frustrating to see such a chaos in the country I am living. Right now I don’t see anything positive coming out of this. Whatever happens the only option is not to win but to lose the least.
I think the best possible solution is to try and extend the leaving period and try to renegotiate better terms, but even that is unlikely as the EU knows that the UK is in the worst position and have no leverage in the talks.


(Vladislav Kozub) #49

I think he is a rather minor figure on a macro scale. Braking - yes, but leading to Brexit - not quite. It was mainly Cameron who wanted to get more concessions from the EU and used referendum as his “leverage” but with absolute confidence people would vote remain. And he did not get anything out of it, then we had The Bus triggering people’s most delicate feelings (NHS funding) and then we know where this all ended up being.


#50

Remember when Cameron said

:man_facepalming:


(Vladislav Kozub) #51

It was stable back then though, he had an absolute majority in the parliament and could continue whatever he was doing if not only that Brexit :thinking:


#52

I wouldn’t go as far as saying it was stable back in 2015. But Conservatives did win a majority a few days after that Tweet, then Cameron resigned a year later because he lost Brexit. The year between his 2015 win and Brexit wasn’t very stable either given all the lies coming from the politicians.


(Georgi) #53

It is true that he wasn’t a big player in all of that, but his role was significant enough to make the difference between a Brexit or no. After all the result was 51:49%.
Interested the hear people’s opinion on what are the chances of no Brexit at all?
I think right now the majority of UK cotizens want no Brexit, but no one really wants to say it.


(Vladislav Kozub) #54

I think the process is so beyond the point of no return that no Brexit is just not going to happen.

If she survives the vote, the MPs will probably keep shouting at each other for the next two months, keep begging to rule out “no deal”, and then agree to change one or two lines in May’s deal and pass it days before the 29th of March, potentially losing even more than could have got with her deal.


#55

I think she will survive as surely not even the Tory rebels would be daft enough to trigger a General Election which they won’t win.


#56

The problem is that the only ways to prevent No Deal are to

  • extend A50 temporarily (via GE, second ref or just asking nicely… either way achieving the extension requires, among other things, unanimous approval by EU27)
    • and then work out something better, which means (a) significantly revisiting the UK’s red lines (which there will be significant political barriers to in the UK?) rather than just going back the EU27 and going “nah, can we have something better” and (b) means getting unanimous agreement from EU27 and UK parlt to any revised withdrawal agreement (which we’ve just seen can be quite tricky)
  • or revoke A50, which we can do unilaterally. So easy to do! And yet so hard.
  • or revive May’s deal. Hmm.

Having slept on it and avoiding the news today, I feel a deepening No Deal Brexit sadness. Is it the first time that a country has voted to impose international trade sanctions on itself?


#57

I think Mogg will be announced as the new PM and he’ll get Brexit over the line.


(Emma) #58

That has to be the most horrific dystopian nightmare imaginable


(Rob N) #59

Always useful to see what the bookies are saying:

  • The government will win the vote of no confidence
  • Brexit date is anyone’s guess
  • But we’re very unlikely to leave the EU by the end of March19


(Dave Smith) #60

Bookies aren’t always right, I won £80 betting on a leave vote in the referendum when the bookies were predicting remain