Donāt buy the dip.
I havenāt bot anything yet, money tied up in isa transfer. Looking to buy spx ~ 2550ish.
I was wondering, which is more likely getting GP appointment or contracting COVID-19.
Do buy it. Just not this one. You buy the dip in a bull market, weāre rapidly approaching bear territory and then buying the dip is like catching a falling knife.
On another note, waiting for the first toilet paper or hand sanitiser IPO. Can see that doing more tendies than Tesla shorts.
/gotreddit
@Marsares thereformedbroker shared this I think.
āFinancial Educationā Jeremy touched on this in one of his last videos, said if the oil companyās declare bankruptcy and default on their payments the banks are gonnae get f****** big style!
Prepare for a long ride.
Donāt blame the banks. Blame the financial engineering elongating the bull runs.
I wouldnāt touch any type of corporate debt at this rate, Iām undecided if Iād want any government eitherā¦
Regarding buying or not buying the dipā¦ Where my head is at it is impossible to know how long will this ācrisisā lasts, could be 1 month, could be 3 years.
To me it feels impossible to try and time the market. The only change that I have made in my strategy is to shift any new contributions from growth stocks into solid dividend income companies
Rationale being that those companies are still being sold at discount and averaging down will still be beneficial, while I will continue to receive them juicy dividendsā¦
Not pretending to be a financial expert therefore I am under no illusions that I will be able to successfully time the market. Thoughts?
Iām no expert, but common-sense seems to suggest that those juicy dividends may no longer be quite so juicy. The money has to come from somewhere, and if we enter a recession where is it going to come from?
Very true but generally income companies will try to avoid cutting their dividends. Look at Shell, havenāt cut their dividend since the last war despite the price of oil being so volatile.
The companies that I invest generally have decent dividend coverage so I anticipate that could sustain their dividends for a few years even if recession does come.
Obviously I could be wrong
Wise to be cautious here. If we enter into a prolonged and serious downturn, there will be all manner of headaches* for investors and lenders as top lines plummet, financial covenants are breached and debt servicing ability is severely stressed.
Topical reference to big oil @SpyrosL , and of all the oil majors I expect Shell will maintain the dividend despite the considerable downward price pressure oil is currently facing but what is uncertain right now is how a sustained downturn plays out against a backdrop of incredibly high corporate debt levels. Without wanting to over simplify, if revenues suffer as a result of significant demand (and supply) constraints, debt still needs to be serviced no matter what shareholders might expect. In a regular downturn scenario, resilient, counter cyclical sectors and businesses are usually a good play, but itās genuinely hard to know how this will pan out.
Today Iāve read two reports from a tier one consultancy and a US investment bank and it feels like itās very finger in the air stuff given that this is evolving quite quickly and some of the assumptions are frankly not as robust as youād expect.
*understatement to reduce general sense of despair
McKinsey?
āItaly to close all food stores and pharmacies going forward as the WHO designates it as a pandemicā Presume thereās other sources but I found it on an Irish news service I use. Huge change in wealth disparity post-virus me thinks
This together with the shale industry about to self-combust is not even close to being priced in yet. US markets barely at āmild shockā at the moment.
Kenny Human, a 33-year-old lawyer from Kentucky, reportedly told the publication that he paid just $400 per ticket, including taxes and cancellation insurance, for a Carnival cruise leaving New Orleans in May that will sail through the western Caribbean.
āI just have this natural inclination to buy low on things,ā he said. āMy girlfriend does think Iām crazy, but she is reluctantly on board, no pun intended.ā
