What is going on today? - Megathread

I have a question that is if you study a companies finances and you see their running at a loss like many might be while in a recession.

Do you continue to buy due to seeing the amount of runaway cash they have left over? Or do you go by the fact their making a lesser loss than others but at the end of the day its still a loss?

Or do we just contuine to buy these stocks knowing they have been it profit pre recession and maybe or if you go by forecasts should be back in profit again one day but who knows when.

How are you all going to deal with buys during a big downturn yet to get worse it seems.

Yet to get worse in virtually the whole world. So i will stick with mainly investment trusts.
All this doom mongering is great for buyers i am already positioned.

For dividends those with decent reserves.
Murray International and NAIT
And for growth well I am buying now for the bounce back.

UK Smaller Companies they have fallen enough.
Private equity investment trusts have fallen due to a illogical read across from growth capital.
Vietnam investment trusts simply for long run.
And some non investment trusts Georgia capital not dissimilar to a private equity investment trust. And bank of Georgia.
There, this time next year i will be a millionaire.
Or skint

Opps forgot still have some legal and general bought during the crash at 166p. I will keep them.

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Depends where they are in their business cycle (for example). A biotech in phase 1 with no revenue will likely go bust if it doesnā€™t have a source of funds. You may strike gold or not. Amazon posted a loss for tens of years ā€¦ but it was bringing in cash and a lot of it. It was investing its money in the business and that is why it showed up as a loss in the accounts. And then this year for the first time since 2015 Amazon posted a quarterly loss. But analysts and others are still gung-ho about it. So you need to be smart and understand what the loss in the accounts really means.

But here is the thing, you very likely should not be investing in individual companies at the moment (or perhaps be investing only a really tiny portion of your money in them). Many people in the past two-three years have done well with very little knowledge of what they were doing. They were gambling and convincing themselves they were ā€œinvestingā€. It was Ok. Everything was on the way up - big time. Now: In some ways the world has returned to ā€œnormalā€ times. Yeah buddy.

I am glad you are asking these questions (they are good questions) and investors should really think about them and try to answer them for the businessā€™ that interest them.

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I will award any greggs shareholders with gold bullion equivalent

Hopefully not as gold nuggets in the sausage rolls.

Thank you for the long responce and yes me being new even though I have dabbled and looked into stocks, watched videos etc etc over the last 4+ years I only started to invest a year and a half ago after taking the time to get the just of basic investing.

The thing is that I like about stocks and shares etc is the steep learning curve and there seems to be endless learning so you canā€™t get boried.

Also I have been sticking with the snp 500 vaug mostly right now and rio with as I said before anyrhing left goes into the uk100, Drax, admiral and some others.

I did start to learn how to read a companies records before but then stopped so I really need to get back into it.

Morning folks

Found this link for Amex customers to get a free year subscription from the times. Thing is they didnā€™t ask for my Amex card details (which I had ready)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/corporate/american-express/?clickref=1101lwfjraZJ&app_clickref=1101lwfjraZJ&utm_medium=affiliates&utm_campaign=digidip_net&utm_source=partnerize

I get an error Neil, thanks for the heads up though.

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Index Investors

6-8% annualised returns with inflation running at 4% could mean the realised return is as low as 2%.

With cash looking to pay 5.5%, the 10 year returns on index funds looks quite flat.

Hopefully somebody in here sees a strategy for this environment and throws it in here.

I see opportunity in a strategic bond fund rn.

Likewise, unfortunately.

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I tried cancelling my Times subscription and they then gave me 6 months free on rheir ā€˜Liteā€™ option which is 30 articles a month so if you use it sparingly could be worth trying the same aha

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ā€˜Budgetā€™ had been brought forward 2 weeks to today - took a bit of a drop this morning but interesting to see what the budget will entail and how markets will react during the coming days

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Keep trying, it was on a popular deal website. It could be overwhelmed

I wonder if the PM can last to see it, Iā€™d imagine so but itā€™s got to be a matter of when not if.

Thatā€™ll depend on the markets in the next day or so. If things stabilise then sheā€™ll stay but be entirely useless (much like Boris in the final months)
Which means little actions until the GE is called which will likely be late next year.
In the mean time the papers will continue to help pull the party further apart.

And if it doesnā€™t : another Tory lacky will take over and repeat until some sort of stabilisation occurs.

Maybe they should put the daily mailā€™s lettuce in chargeā€¦ after all itā€™s got a good head we can get behind

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UK implied (aka breakeven) inflation has come down a lot. Investors pricing a huge slowdown in growth in the near term. Huntā€™s ā€œDonā€™t-call-it-Austerityā€ will pile more pressure on.

Just read this today

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Burry shared this, itā€™s an interesting read. I think the capex boom and inflation has more to do with chronic underinvestment in the previous couple decades as well as climate change, but he may be right otherwise.

Interestingly banks seem like a good choice for such an era as they complete their transition to a utility type sector that simply serves as the mechanism to distribute state-directed credit and benefit from higher rates. But their profits may also become politically unpopular: I can easily imagine the lack of risk justifying interest payments on BoE deposits being capped, and rates may be suppressed at lower levels than expected to help debtors.

Iā€™m curious as to how inflation expectations are managed in that scenario

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