What is going on today? - Megathread

I understand what you mean now and agree with it. I believe thereā€™s also a kind of fear of investing in less popular companies or those going through a temporary downturn. Thatā€™s why Buffett himself recommends buying index funds.

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Oooooo itā€™s exciting the big budget is today. I wonder what the markets will do if anything hehe

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As I was on Nightshift Iā€™m about to sleep so I guess Iā€™ll wake up after the market closes and see what mayhems happened hehe

Time to buy!

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ignore the noise and sleep well.

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Have a good sleep and at long last the budget!! Months of absolute scare mongering fed up with it!

Probably nothing of any real significance for any of us

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Either theyā€™ve done really poorly on the communication, or weā€™re all about to be taxed into oblivion with a bunch of stealth taxes :smiley:

fun

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Rachel Reeves: ā€œwe will apply a 50% relief in all circumstances on shares on the AIM market, setting the effective rate of tax at 20%ā€

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A good few stocks seem happy with the budget

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THE BUDGET 2024

Are SIPPā€™s now included in IHT? Ouch.

Affordable housing and lower NHS wait timesā€¦? How about lifestyle homes for the long haul with spaces for home gyms and instead of car MOTā€™s how about yearly healthcare MOTā€™s?

Back to that SIPP thing thoughā€¦ ouch.

Regarding properties if your parents/parent owns outright and when they unfortunately pass you can actually get Ā£500,000 IHT relief if that property is inherited and then occupied by the children or grandchildren. Best to be placed into a will for reassurance.

First time buyers with low chances of inheritance personally I feel should fight harder & work harder & smarter as I fail to believe affordable housing is coming, not at the rate the prices of property are going up.

Gold has been a great hedge the past 3 months and to see that Ā£130Billion borrowing figure is wild.

Anybody who believe the countries debt is going to lower has severely missed the long term direction of country debt - itā€™s going higher and in 30 years youā€™ll see it at multiples of trillions more than today just like the direction of America. There is no countrywide plan to lower debt. Look at the states. History rhymes.

If debt wasnā€™t ā€œat multiples of trillions more than todayā€ in 3 decades I would be severely concerned given that would necessarily mean the economy wouldnā€™t have grown. The national debt is simply the corresponding accounting identity of aggregate private sector balances.

Thatā€™s not to say there arenā€™t constraints of course, but a plan to ā€œlower debtā€ is equivalent to removing money from the economy.

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I guess spiralling debt is not a problem until it is.

The new rules for the working population appear to be get higher debt - pay significantly more for that debt - get the debt for longer periods of your life - accept lower & lower standards of living.

And once the vast populations standards have been lowered, then theyā€™ll do another budget to shrink that goldfish bowl even tighter and life moves on from there.

Iā€™m guessing many will be withdrawing pieces of their SIPPā€™s and purchasing gold coins and placing those gold coins s o m e w h e r e for beneficiaries to subtly find later down the line to avoid some of this stuff.

Itā€™s still wild to say out loud that a Ā£300-Ā£350K two bed property is 10-12X average earnings. Itā€™s an insult to add an extra couple hundred thousand pounds in interest payments on top AND to extend that debt for more decades on top of the already two-and-a-half decade loan time.

Makes perfect sense to leave this country and actually live your life in other parts of the world.

Still, this country is pretty great if you have already won the finance lottery.

I speak from somebody who has actually moved mountains since 2019 and still I think whoa how are things to this level of expensive itā€™s truly unfair on very hard working people to give up such substantial levels of their life and time purely to afford rent-beans on toast-1 trip away a year if thatā€¦ welcome Gen Z to the new 1970ā€™s.

Maybe you donā€™t need to move out of the UK but just out of Surrey

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What does that mean? I canā€™t get my head around that one.

Who spooked the market ?! :jack_o_lantern: :scream: :ghost: :skull:

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Moooo-ooooo-ooooooā€¦ oooooo-oooooo

:ghost: :cow:

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US recession fears back on?

Hmmm

Good evening :last_quarter_moon_with_face::full_moon_with_face::first_quarter_moon_with_face: -

As usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :point_down::

Portfolio Construction
:arrow_right: Asset Allocation: framework for an active-passive portfolio
:arrow_right: US Equities: Bridgewater on can US outperformance repeat?
:arrow_right: Dividends: Three things you should know about portfolio income
:arrow_right: De-dollarization: JP Morgan on US dollar losing its dominance
:arrow_right: Portfolios: Pursuing the Perfect Portfolio
:arrow_right: Asset Classes: Lessons from 100 Years of Financial History

ETFs
:arrow_right: ETF Guides: JP Morganā€™s new ETF market guide
:arrow_right: Bond ETFs: How they are shaping the trading landscape
:arrow_right: ETF Market: When will popularity peak?

Active Investing
:arrow_right: AI: Bridgewater report on AI Bubble - Ahead or Behind Us?
:arrow_right: Market Update: Real Assets, Private Credit, PE And HFs
:arrow_right: Factors: Playing offense and defense with trend-following
:arrow_right: Alternatives: Alternative Asset Classes Are Flooded

Wealth & Lifestyle
:arrow_right: Real Estate vs. Stocks: Which Is Faster for Early Retirement?
:arrow_right: How Many Years of Work It Takes to Buy a Condo, by Global City
:arrow_right: Mini-retirements: what does it entail ā€” can you afford to take one?
:arrow_right: Retirement: What I Learned Writing 400 Articles About Retirement
:arrow_right: Financial Advice: Impact Of Advisorsā€™ Costs On Clients

Brokers & Platforms
:arrow_right: Payment apps: hereā€™s why you shouldnā€™t store money in them
:arrow_right: Finding Your Broker Tribe: Our Broker Classification System
:arrow_right: CurrencyFair: Our Review

And Also
:arrow_right: Aging: What Freaks Me Out About ā€œMid-Lifeā€
:arrow_right: Career Breaks: 6 Lessons From My 6-Week Mini-Retirement
:arrow_right: Health: Which Countries Are the Healthiest
:arrow_right: Cycling Tibet: Spiritual, Ballistic, Magnificent.

Have a great Week-End!

Francesca from BoW Team :biking_man: :biking_woman:t3:

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My setup going into the US election (note that all growth has been taken and currently leaving my long portfolio as it is)

US Election setup

  • Ā£17,500 in TLT looking for (an unfortunate) Harris win / HOLD MEDIUM TERM
  • Ā£15,000 purchase in S&P 500 today / SELLING IN MARCH 2025
  • Ā£25,000 purchase in S&P 500 on election day / SELLING IN MARCH 2025
  • Ā£8,500 in Wisdomtree Gold purchased in August / HOLD & BUYING MORE

LONG Portfolio setup

  • Ā£140,000 in CSH2, T212 5.15%, CHASE 4.85% / READY TO PURCHASE FOR 2025/26
  • Ā£54,000 in HMWO

I think the financial markets, the betting markets and the commentary markets have been wrong and this will be a plain Harris win, stocks will rally into 2025 another 15-20%, TLT will rally 10%, and going into late 2025 the main mega cap markets will slump for a couple years. Going to try my first short positions mid 2025 and let my TLT & Gold positions run good for a few years.

5 years of market experience in this setup and feel pretty calm over it.

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