This is why I’ve moved 37% of my portfolio to ERNS ultra short bond fund. It’s the most obvious euphoria rally that has gone way to far the other way.
I also think the infrastructure space has done the same thing, UKW and TRIG have gone bananas for no apparent reason whatsoever.
Taken short term profits over the last week and gone defensive, will see how that plays out but I’m well over my ATH so happy to take a breath and sleep soundly for a while.
It’s almost comical how clear this is a bear market rally for the major US market. This is a 5 year bear market. There are hints of the 1970’s inflation shock and some of the 2000’s and the 2006’s euphoria coming to an end. All coming together.
You do not want to be holding the Nasdaq throughout this period. The Nasdaq is mis-priced for this environment. So is much of real estate currently in the UK but real estate doesn’t rly correct. The Nasdaq does.
Other more quality dividend appealing markets last month (March / April) were definite good long term entry points for developed market quality.
I am extremely fine with holding cash for 3-6 months. Tempted to even buy a 1 year gilt next week before rates fall a little after the 8th May.
The gold swing trade could potentially come back on the table in buying in June and holding for the rest of the year.
Good afternoon 
-
As usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days 
:
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
The Most Important Decision: How Much Equity Risk Should You Take?
ETF Diversifiers: How They Performed During Market Turmoil
Choosing Bond Duration: Friend or foe in your portfolio?
Bubbles: Asset bubbles of the past 50 years
Bonds vs Cash: What To Do With Bonds and Cash in a Crazy Market?
Bear Markets: MAN Group Report on Equity Drawdowns
ETFs & PLATFORMS
ETF Guides: CFA Institute’s Comprehensive Guide To ETFs (70 pages)
S&P 500 ETFs: Amundi starts ‘core’ range with low-fee S&P 500 ETF
Emerging Markets: Robeco unveils quant EM ETF
Systematic ETFs: HSBC AM plots its entry with systematic equity trio
Platforms: How can they offer such high interest rates?
ACTIVE INVESTING
Vanguard: Vanguard on the wrong path with private asset ETFs?
Gold in a Fragmented World: Safe haven and strategic asset
Small Caps vs. Large Caps: The Cycle That’s About to Turn?
Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran
Trend Following Funds: A short history of trend-following hedge funds
WEALTH & LIFESTYLE
Lifestyle: Is the Middle-Class Trap Something to Worry About?
Emergency Savings: The Key to financial well-being
Early Retirement: 4 Key Decisions
Personal Finance: Are you taking too much risk in the run-up to retirement?
FIRE Movement: Why Is It Becoming Obsolete
And so much more!
Have a great Saturday!
Francesca from BoW Team 
Thought I’d post a live Swing Trade I’m buying into in 2 positions short term as a little momentum move. The opportunity arose in both AMD and BRK for a short term move. Could not easily short BRK on the obvious 5% drop so buying into the obvious 5% recovery instead.
I saw they dropped in pre market / open but due to the pointless BH, I have no funds to buy in as would have had to sell something.
I see it’s already a few percent off its lows, another opportunity missed.
Warren betted on berk rising high when he passes I know he’s not passed yet he’s just stepped down. Hopefully berk will still be kept the way it is and not split into lots of mini companies.
So today I found out that I don’t own rolls Royce anymore for the new deal and today I learned I don’t own enough boeing for the new trade deal :D.
How we feeling about the steal and everything else too?
Not sure how crazy or not rolls or boeing will take off let’s see shall wee.
He’s widely credited with significantly driving up Tesla’s valuation, if he is kicked out.. you can see the tesla in teens in par with other automakers
Good morning -
A bit later than usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Your Battle Plan For The Next Market Chaos: Crafting a Rock-Solid IPS
Leverage 1/3: Borrowing From Your Future Can Cost You Everything
Leverage 2/3: Leveraged ETFs – Beyond Volatility Drag
Leverage 3/3: Rethinking Diversification with Risk Parity
Tail-risk ETFs: How they use options to act as portfolio insurance
Bear Markets: The UBS Bear Market Guidebook
ETFs & PLATFORMS
Tools: Our ETF Fee Calculator
ETF Trading: Deutsche Boerse vs regional exchanges in Germany
Money-Market Funds: WSJ on why they are ripping you off
ACTIVE INVESTING
Warren Buffett’s Retirement: What made Warren Buffett
Margin Call Movie: Why it remains Wall Street’s favorite
AQR Research: A view on Small Caps & Emerging Markets
Alternatives: Gold towards $5,000 by Research Affiliates
‘Crisis Alpha’ Funds: Managed Futures 2025 Performance Explained
Sentiment Indicators: How Bitcoin can help
WEALTH & LIFESTYLE
FIRE: Is Market Chaos Blowing up our plans?
My Early Retirement Dream: My Vision Then vs My Reality Now
Advice: A Framework To Guide Anxious Clients Through Uncertain Markets
Personal Development: Why men shouldn’t fear being “middle aged”
Retirement: Some Baby boomers urged to work as ‘70 is the new 50’
And so much more!
Have a great week-end!
Francesca from BoW Team
Short squeeze currently happening in the US market. During the bear market. August / September will be interesting.
Technically we never entered a bear market and the S&P500 is only down 3.7% YTD.
Sold a few more off the back of this rally, well in excess of my ATHs now 
.
The pullback will be glorious.
Only a Buffon would predict a 5 year bear market.
I love 101 vs Beenthere everywhere I go it’s good banter 
Have you taken a look at Berkshire Hathaways cash pile? Buffet himself & the team are predicting a 5 year bear market simply by their actual actions.
Have you seen the Shiller PE ratio?
Have you seen the tariffs?
Have you noticed governments are not giving out cash like the pandemic days?
Have you studied any history on the markets? (Like huge periods of low gains)
Have you seen Vanguards 10 year projection?
Have you seen the market returns the past 15 years have been historically the highest ever?
The S&P 500 went up 50% the past 2 years, you simply don’t get 25% yoy growth from the market especially when it’s already heated. It also doubled like went up 100% in just over a year during the pandemic. 100% growth in 1 year. Investors are living in dreamland if they think this bear market is a v-shape recovery.
But to add, buying on the large down days once big sell offs have happened is typically a really great long term strategy.
So yes I am calling these coming years - The Accumulation Years.
(Personally buying the £100K into a certain platforms cash offering of 8.5% on cash) Will it last for longer than a month or two? Maybe not but still…
And don’t get me wrong I’ve spent £17,000 buying into the market since April 2nd after seeing the S&P 500 reach 4,800 points. Totally avoided this niche panic to buy European defence stocks as I don’t see this war in Ukraine lasting longer than 5 more years and I do not want to be holding defence stocks when that war comes to an end. 50% drop in 3 days in those positions when that comes to an end and if it comes to a more abrupt end.
Rubbish he is predicting nothing of the sort. He has never been that stupid he would actually attempt to come up with such a prediction.
"The only function of economic prediction is to make astrology look respectable "
Which newspaper do you get your astrology predictions from?
When are you going to start taking massive short positions on companies then?
