What is going on today? - Megathread

I saw they dropped in pre market / open but due to the pointless BH, I have no funds to buy in as would have had to sell something.

I see it’s already a few percent off its lows, another opportunity missed.

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Warren betted on berk rising high when he passes I know he’s not passed yet he’s just stepped down. Hopefully berk will still be kept the way it is and not split into lots of mini companies.

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https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/rich-dad-poor-dad-author-issues-another-urgent-market-crash-warning

So today I found out that I don’t own rolls Royce anymore for the new deal and today I learned I don’t own enough boeing for the new trade deal :D.

How we feeling about the steal and everything else too?

Not sure how crazy or not rolls or boeing will take off let’s see shall wee.

He’s widely credited with significantly driving up Tesla’s valuation, if he is kicked out.. you can see the tesla in teens in par with other automakers

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Good morning :sun_with_face: -

A bit later than usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :backhand_index_pointing_down::

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
:right_arrow: Your Battle Plan For The Next Market Chaos: Crafting a Rock-Solid IPS
:right_arrow: Leverage 1/3: Borrowing From Your Future Can Cost You Everything
:right_arrow: Leverage 2/3: Leveraged ETFs – Beyond Volatility Drag
:right_arrow: Leverage 3/3: Rethinking Diversification with Risk Parity
:right_arrow: Tail-risk ETFs: How they use options to act as portfolio insurance
:right_arrow: Bear Markets: The UBS Bear Market Guidebook

ETFs & PLATFORMS
:right_arrow: Tools: Our ETF Fee Calculator
:right_arrow: ETF Trading: Deutsche Boerse vs regional exchanges in Germany
:right_arrow: Money-Market Funds: WSJ on why they are ripping you off

ACTIVE INVESTING
:right_arrow: Warren Buffett’s Retirement: What made Warren Buffett
:right_arrow: Margin Call Movie: Why it remains Wall Street’s favorite
:right_arrow: AQR Research: A view on Small Caps & Emerging Markets
:right_arrow: Alternatives: Gold towards $5,000 by Research Affiliates
:right_arrow: ā€˜Crisis Alpha’ Funds: Managed Futures 2025 Performance Explained
:right_arrow: Sentiment Indicators: How Bitcoin can help

WEALTH & LIFESTYLE
:right_arrow: FIRE: Is Market Chaos Blowing up our plans?
:right_arrow: My Early Retirement Dream: My Vision Then vs My Reality Now
:right_arrow: Advice: A Framework To Guide Anxious Clients Through Uncertain Markets
:right_arrow: Personal Development: Why men shouldn’t fear being ā€œmiddle agedā€
:right_arrow: Retirement: Some Baby boomers urged to work as ā€˜70 is the new 50’

And so much more!

Have a great week-end!

Francesca from BoW Team :person_biking: :woman_biking:t3:

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Short squeeze currently happening in the US market. During the bear market. August / September will be interesting.

Technically we never entered a bear market and the S&P500 is only down 3.7% YTD.

Sold a few more off the back of this rally, well in excess of my ATHs now :grinning_face:.

The pullback will be glorious.

Only a Buffon would predict a 5 year bear market.

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I love 101 vs Beenthere everywhere I go it’s good banter :slight_smile:

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Have you taken a look at Berkshire Hathaways cash pile? Buffet himself & the team are predicting a 5 year bear market simply by their actual actions.
Have you seen the Shiller PE ratio?
Have you seen the tariffs?
Have you noticed governments are not giving out cash like the pandemic days?
Have you studied any history on the markets? (Like huge periods of low gains)
Have you seen Vanguards 10 year projection?
Have you seen the market returns the past 15 years have been historically the highest ever?

The S&P 500 went up 50% the past 2 years, you simply don’t get 25% yoy growth from the market especially when it’s already heated. It also doubled like went up 100% in just over a year during the pandemic. 100% growth in 1 year. Investors are living in dreamland if they think this bear market is a v-shape recovery.

But to add, buying on the large down days once big sell offs have happened is typically a really great long term strategy.

So yes I am calling these coming years - The Accumulation Years.

(Personally buying the Ā£100K into a certain platforms cash offering of 8.5% on cash) Will it last for longer than a month or two? Maybe not but still…

And don’t get me wrong I’ve spent Ā£17,000 buying into the market since April 2nd after seeing the S&P 500 reach 4,800 points. Totally avoided this niche panic to buy European defence stocks as I don’t see this war in Ukraine lasting longer than 5 more years and I do not want to be holding defence stocks when that war comes to an end. 50% drop in 3 days in those positions when that comes to an end and if it comes to a more abrupt end.

Rubbish he is predicting nothing of the sort. He has never been that stupid he would actually attempt to come up with such a prediction.

"The only function of economic prediction is to make astrology look respectable "
Which newspaper do you get your astrology predictions from?

When are you going to start taking massive short positions on companies then?

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Are they the same person?

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Why don’t I just keep buying into prolonged market sell offs and continue what I’ve been doing for 6 years straight. I sold out twice during that period because every financial quote possible came to light when markets were euphoric and when markets were oversold.

I’ve physically only done what the industry clearly states in a couple quotes from experienced investors. That’s my way of entering the market, that how I played the game to get in.

My aim has always been to become fully invested unless absolute absurdity becomes apparent but after the past 5 years I’m pretty fine to keep buying the sell offs and becoming fully invested. Even during a long bear market.

I personally couldn’t simply buy the market during 2021 and 2024 because it felt wrong. It physically was overheated both times like all the quotes suggest.

The issue with me is that I’ve put what I done into words and that always gets a weird reaction because nobody wants anybody to be correct. Apparently only one person out of 6 billion is allowed to be right and that’s buffet. No one else is allowed to sell out of the market when it’s euphoric, only him haha.

He’s got over $300 BILLION in cash and you’re telling me he’s not timing the market. Haha. Good lord.

It comes down to, did I do what is tough to do and buy gold when nobody wants it and buy large into equities when a market sells off for a prolonged time - yes.

And even start new accounts during those sell offs to take advantage of the bonus offers whilst also buying equities at a high period of volatility.

Even though I expect to see some of these prices more than once! Buying during market chaos historically shows great long term results.

And one or two of the purchases rebounded 100% since last month.

I only made those purchases because the market physically went from 6,150 down to 4,800 within the blink of an eye. That to me was a major discount.

I don’t care if the narrative for most retail investors was to ditch the US and pile into European defence or whatever - how weird not a single person suddenly cares about European equities… how fast trends change.

My global trackers include those sectors.

The stocks with momentum which I saw to purchase were like Amazon, Palantir for a short swing because young people on YouTube seem obsessed so I’m riding that wave for a moment purely because that sell off happened and I know how naive young people are.

I’ll likely become 95% invested by the end of 2026.

Then I can completely set and forget and leave the buys on auto-purchase. That’s been my aim all along to gain as much equity over a 5 year period by avoiding huge market euphoria and buying large chunks during the tough months.

Even with these quicker market moves I still see that if you look out longer time frames like 6 months out you see how the bigger trends unwind or grow. A bear market rally, a sell off, euphoria, a lower low… I buy the lower lows and sell the absolute euphoria where valuations and sentiment simply do not hold up.

Of course he times the market, he just advises the average investor to buy into the S&P500.

https://www.statista.com/chart/34414/cash-holdings-of-berkshire-hathaway/

He isn’t sitting on this cash because ā€œBuffet himself & the team are predicting a 5 year bear marketā€ which is rather specific time frame you have come out with.

He simply cant just deploy his cash without creating significant movement in the markets.

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