What is going on today? - Megathread

He has some of that money due to buying 6% of coke is 1988 I would venture he has build it up by having time in the market (nearly 40 years in this example)not timing the market

I have given up on waiting for freetrade to transfer money from my Gia to my ISA and have transferred it to my bank account instead. Anyone any idea how long it takes to reach my bank account? 212 is almost instantly but I can’t remember how long it takes freetrade.
A week
A month
A year!!

2-3 business days, 2pm is the cut off so will go out Monday now for Wednesday arrival.

There is a ā€˜move cash’ feature on the web app for future.

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Good evening :last_quarter_moon_face::full_moon_face::first_quarter_moon_face: -

As usual, we selected the best articles published in the past few days :backhand_index_pointing_down::

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
:right_arrow: Asset Allocation: Morningstar’s Diversified Portfolios Report (60 pages)
:right_arrow: Equity Allocation: Is Your Overconfidence Leading You To Financial Ruin?
:right_arrow: U.S. vs. Non-U.S.: A great report from AQR’s Antti Ilmanen
:right_arrow: Completion Portfolios: AQR on concentrated stocks (your employer)
:right_arrow: Investing & Cycling the World: Raph’s 7 Investing Lessons
:right_arrow: Market Dips: How ignoring them can double your wealth
:right_arrow: Stock Market Returns: Decade ranking of main countries

ETFs & PLATFORMS
:right_arrow: Become a Passive Ninja: Our guide to slashing ETF costs and taxes
:right_arrow: Factor ETF Performance: How flows affect performance
:right_arrow: ETF Liquidity: Rapid ETF expansion across Europe stretches liquidity
:right_arrow: Interval Funds: The unappreciated costs and risks
:right_arrow: French Life Insurance Contracts: Over half of them feature ETFs
:right_arrow: Interactive Brokers: Fixed vs Tiered Plan — which is best for ETFs?

ACTIVE INVESTING
:right_arrow: Dimensional Co-founder Interview: Great ideas start out as small ones
:right_arrow: Profitability Factor: Robert Novy-Marx on what we’ve learned
:right_arrow: Gold: The investment thesis revisited
:right_arrow: CFA Institute on Tokenization: Investment perspective on tokenization

WEALTH & LIFESTYLE
:right_arrow: FIRE: Recession fears and the trade war — is this the end of it?
:right_arrow: Portfolio Optimization for Pension Purposes: Literature review
:right_arrow: Estate Planning: Three big estate mistakes
:right_arrow: Retirement: What if this turns out to be a terrible time to retire?
:right_arrow: Personal Finance: Handling requests for advice from friends and family
:right_arrow: Wealth & Wellbeing: Healthier ageing isn’t just about personal choices
:right_arrow: Careers: How to change careers

And so much more!

Have a great week-end!

Francesca from BoW Team :person_biking: :woman_biking:t3:

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The next day if your plus

Berkshire Hathaway $260 Billion in investments.
Berkshire Hathaway $300+ Billion in cash.

So they are 45% invested.

With an American stock market that just done 18.50% average yearly returns from 2019-2024 on top of a 10 year bull market before 2019 - it would be wise to expect a 5 year period of poor returns going forward. Using any historical measure this makes sense.

3% - 6% returns over the decade seem much more viable. However that plays out.

I genuinely believe the opposite, a buffoon would predict the S&P 500 keeps doing 25% each year going forward.

I’m investing as if this is still a bear market which I believe it is and will be for the next few years and from that base the real recovery and new bull market prevails. Likely fueled by a.i. proving itself and governments creating cash flows in creative ways so people can earn growing pay in the sectors paving the way rather than completely losing their jobs - which I also believe is possible.

Good times create weak men - Weak men create bad times - Bad times create tough men - Tough men create good times.

It’s fascinating investing by using the quotes from the highest experience of the top investors. If you do what the quote says, you come out on top over the medium to long term.

My only needle in the hay stack stock pick from 2021 also got proven extremely correct - OnOn. How right was that one! The shoes are taking over the world.

So as individual picks I brought:
Google in March 2020
BAE in 2021
OnOn in October 2022
Nvidia in December 2022
Gold throughout 2024/25

Those are not bad entry points and not bad reasons for buying either as all were proved correct. Covid did bring about a war. On Shoes did capture the smart buyer. Nvidia did explode due to a.i. and people’s jobs have been lost and will continue. Gold was cheap and hadn’t corrected to the upside yet.

6 years I’ve been right and I’m about 2 years away from Ā£500,000 having had Ā£2,000 in December 2018.

I don’t listen to others and the news only helps me decide when euphoria is present or when fear has gone too far.

If the cash is cleared funds you can transfer instantly on the website from your FT GIA to ISA. I did it with some dividends received in my GIA last week.

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How many have you got wrong?

Does anyone listen/watch Mark Meldrum? If so what’s your thoughts I find him relaxing and a good watch while I’m doing stuff same as many happy returns etc and pension craft are my go tos for I go and chilling.

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The quicker you realise the markets will do what they like, the quicker you can relax and get on with life.

Invest for your risk tolerance and time horizon, NOT what these influencers bang on about as they know NOTHING.

They are good for one thing, which is getting post event perspective and therapy if that’s your bag.

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No I do understand that but I also enjoy just looking at numbers, markets and stories.

I have always invested in my own stuff but I like to just listen. I have learned alot from audio books and from the many happy returns podcast things I would of never heard if i never listened to those so it’s good for me anyways maybe not for others.

I check my portfolio every morning at 8 to see what’s happening then close it then open mid day see what’s happning then near market close and that’s my routine no panic involved or anything just checking the markets checking the numbers lol

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Are you talking about @101 ? !

Nope, we all love their stories true or false :joy:.

I mean the planks thinking they have some sort of edge :joy::rofl:.

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Surely Ramans experience gives him the right to speak about markets etc being that he’s worked all around the world in banking and investments and as a physicist he’s interesting.

I know they all promote this and that etc but he does give lots of free videos and in depth too.

I’m not sure about the rest of the younger lot though.

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Raman is one of the better ones for reasons you mention. His content is interesting in the context of illustrating the past, I like his comparisons charts for each asset type.

His latest chaos video is very interesting, it reinforced my decisions around early April to buy buy buy, though my risk adverse nature means I also sold out again too early.

What would be interesting is to see how these creators react to a long bear market, we’ve had it so easy with V shaped recoveries, though I’m not complaining as I’ve profited from them.

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That’s such an amateur question. I called Google out in 2002 (again reconfirming it in 2009), Apple in 2004 (I was a graphic designer and was basically their target audience, and that was before the iPhone), Facebook obviously in 2007 (that’s the easiest ever to get right), and didn’t see anything else until the market crashed in 2020.

So for me I’d only notice a true opportunity over a decade period. Maybe even longer as things play out.

Amateurs think ALL stock pickers are ALWAYS trying to pick stocks - whereas I’m simply living my life aware for the most part of what’s around and very occasionally you can’t ignore what’s staring you in the face, and I have the ability in the things I see to know when it’s about to become mainstream over the coming years.

Could that be from being a semi-pro sports person from age 10-25 years old? Likely.

Society can only handle one or two major breakthroughs at once and those play out over 10 or 15 years.

A.I. was easy to spot for October - December 2022 because the mainstream hadn’t caught on that a.i. was already here and monetised and the business owners were about to utilise the heck out of it on mass because - that’s the human nature move to make. I saw it. It happened quick. Took the world by surprise. But if you pick up on big big long trends you would have noticed a.i. wasn’t a theory, it was physically monetised like a beast already and about to break out.

I may not pay attention to anything for over a decade or in 5 years a huge obvious shift may arise… who knows.

All I know is for the opportunities I find, to me they tend to be obvious to me.

Others may find other opportunities obvious to them.

It’s why I make fun of the YouTubers that do not have that ability and instead try get rich off of telling others to buy the S&P 500.

I’m not trying to beat the market over a 10 / 20 / 30 years period, I’m trying to make a chunk of money to then invest simply.

If I knew investing was something available to me when I was 14 then I would have over Ā£10million today. Because I know what I’m like. I would only ever act on something that I knew would be highly likely not be able to stop the momentum of.

When somebody says the famous words - ā€œBut there’s no way you could have known thatā€ - it’s like saying there’s no way a human had an instinct to know that something possible was happening… of course some humans pick up on things. The common conception is that only Warren Buffet can invest and everybody else is an idiot. If I’m honest, I wouldn’t buy any of the investments Buffet holds anyway. Not my style not my expertise not my vibe. And he was late to Apple, but he likely wasn’t a graphic designer or music producer in 2004 to notice the companies talent and direction. I called Apple in 2004 and Buffet invested in it around 2016 or something. Wildly late.

I’m finding it pretty kool some of the younger generation calling out Palantir and going hard into it whilst the onlookers don’t yet understand what’s happening. That’s kool. You’re seeing some people with a good instinct home-in on a specific company that they see has incredible value. And making huge sums in their investment accounts early on. Are they not allowed to be Warren Buffet either lmao?

Stop investing everybody as nobody else is allowed to be Warren Buffet haha.

If you actually looked at how many investors in the world have $10million or more you’d quickly realise there’s more than 1 investor that’s made money in the market.

I can miss Tesla even though I already know about it pre-Covid. I can miss Bitcoin even with a friend explaining to me what it is in 2011. I can miss Netflix because I personally don’t watch tv, I can miss pretty much anything, but when I do make a call it’s because I would buy it and hold it solid as a rock for it to come good.

I do not invest large in anything unless it had the momentum and ability to move the globe, and I don’t care what I miss during the decade, because I know that I pick up on at least one or two of the majors that pays off.

It’s why I post here. Do not post anywhere else. I also sold my Freetrade shares pre-2021 purely because I sensed the company was just not the winner and not at all doing the things I considered necessary. It was the one and only time I invested in a start up and quickly realised a different company had won, so got out during all the hype in a private sale.

Start up investing is not for me. I much prefer waiting.

If I could buy into a company right now that monetised NOT using your phone or social media I would drop 20% into it haha - but that’s like the opposite of capitalism. I do however believe I am correct that phones - for many people - are actually horrendous… I think they make life worse than what it was before.

Even making it easy for me to write this… why am I even writing this? Without a phone I wouldn’t be doing this.

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Your posts come across like they were written by Trump. Know everything, never do anything wrong, look how much I’ve got right.

But that’s fine. You continue doing what you’re doing and I’ll take my amateur questions elsewhere.

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The posts by 101 aren’t just posts, they’re big, beautiful posts…some say perhaps the best posts ever composed.

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