What is going on today? - Megathread

The 10Y is at 1.45% so that seems quite a contrarian view.

movements will be parabolic

I’m not dismissing your opinion, I’m just saying lots of people must disagree if they are buying T-notes at 1.45. If sustained inflation was widely anticipated the yield curve would not be flattening like this.

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i can see. things have been simmering. we have been at all time highs on markets. however, under the hood we are watching the price of importing/exporting stuff go through the roof and we are watching wages push up in a few countries. To top it off we have governments printing at high rates in all sorts of forms.

(Ultra) loose monetary policy ≠ necessarily consumer price inflation. What we saw post financial crisis, as a result of unprecedented (at that time) levels of coordinated monetary easing was significant asset price inflation; come through global equities and property.

I honestly think all the hyperinflation chatter is hyperbole. Yes, we’ve had huge levels of fiscal stimulus in addition to the monetary easing, but in this wasn’t additive, this was intensive care for an economy essentially put on ice, ditto eurozone. Will we see short term/medium consumer price pressure? No doubt, and for all the reasons you’ve mentioned.

But once supply chains recover and recalibrate, I believe the biggest mitigant to persistent high consumer price inflation will kick in; the same globalisation and labour arbitrage play that propelled the Chinese economy to its current size, which will mean other less developed countries (or China BAU) will pick up the baton.

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And if anything the past year has accelerated this.

The move out of the office has accelerated location arb for many roles (e.g. if your devs/BAs aren’t colocated anyway then who cares where they are). Ancedotally many India tech/data roles have seen huge (100+%) pay hikes in the last year and resourcing is a big challenge for our product teams.

On a local scale this might all sound inflationary (massive increases in comp, vacancies) but on a global scale it’s just everything moving to a medium cost centre - location arbitrage.

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So, you’re saying it’s… transitory?

https://digitpatrox.com/lets-all-please-stop-calling-dollars-fiat-money/

https://fry-electronics.com/corporate-insiders-well-timed-share-sales-raise-concerns/

Basically the taliban way of operating.

Low tech against the cia etc

Reminds me of the movie Battleship which I find good enough for a Sunday afternoon nap

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any reason most of the US market is down?

Maybe because the tech sector was all massively overpriced after a crazy week last week or so?

Is there any way to predict this so I know for next time?
Also do you think it will stay like this for the rest of the week and then pick up?

If you find a way to predict downturns you will become very rich!

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There is no free lunch in the stock market!

You could look at some indicators like the RSI to see if an assets is overbought/oversold or the PE ratio to see if an asset it overvalued. But no indicators can predict the future. Average PE ratios have been consistently rising with time and rsi can keep rallying for long.

It is only normal to see some pull back in some sectors after a big rally.

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What a wonderful day if you like the colour red!

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