Hot take: 2008 never corrected properly.
All the gains from the last couple of weeks wiped out 
Yep, it wasn’t a good day 
The guy at the table should have his phone on his lap with the same screen 
Who needs money anyway.
Finally some action in the markets.
Robert Kiyosaki & Harry Dent are live tonight from 1am London time. Free registration.
I’m sure John Thomas will be emailing the current insights soon on where the big money is going. (Or not going).
I am of the impression, to not be fooled, many countries economies are still looking cheap when looking 10+ years out.
Wouldn’t it be an awesome statistic if investors on FreeTrade beat returns of those on other platforms over a decade period.
As long as Freetrade doesn’t offer cryptocurrency we should.
Cryptocurrency is coming whether we like it or not
2 interesting stories that will have impacts in the longer term in the UK.
Last March (2020) you had silence from the investing world with media, analysts & all that shouting no way a V shape recovery no way.
Pretty much silence from the sectors regarding investing.
Now mid-way into 2021 you have this scenario with Etoro, Stake, legacy platforms, adverts, fund managers, individual portfolio investors, youtube analysts, multiple email letters, Apple stocks noise, webinars, sales funnels, paid newsletters from any random with an iPhone, the ‘it’s only entertainment not financial advice’ video & podcast crowd, all spouting out buffet quotes 1000’s of times over…
BUT.
This has been the most un-Buffet event, total detachment of stock valuations from a fundamentals perspective.
Two major points for the most recent investors to consider & understand:
1. Stimulus money will stop.
2. Can interest rates stay this low for a 5+ years?
Those two points can have a significant blow to current hysteria.
Everyone has done incredibly well since March ‘20, some gaining a decade of net-worth in the space of a single year. 75% S&P 500 returns is unheard of in that short period.
Having seen this unfold in such detail I wanna make two personal points, both of which are just my two cents:
- I want to see what environment the west & east enter before making large purchases of any asset for a while.
- I am 80% cash.
I see an environment where the risk does not out-way the reward or sustainability. Purely because of stimulus & interest rates going forward.
Back to the Buffet environment, March / April 2020 was a great time to begin long term portfolios or add to them. There is no hindsight, the S&P fell 38%, that’s a freaking buy in anyone’s eyes.
2021 seems so freakin gnarly yet all the investment hype is suggesting to invest now? It’s like, now? You’re saying that now is the time? Where were these views in March 2020?
I feel the newcomers pulled-in by the adverts & online media should strongly consider both stimulus & interest rate environment first.
None of the hype is making it clear that it was March 2020 & October 2020 where the risk/reward strongly favoured risk assets.
WAY UP YOUR RISK REWARD.
I am hearing a small bunch of highly experienced investors speaking on a small scale regarding their appetite for risk because there is about a 50% unclear view on what is approaching around the corner. This is not market timing, this is securing your risk profile.
Cash may be trash, but holding a few equities sectors which correct 50% is worse.
Current unchartered water is in full flow. Though what we do know is many areas of the market are not at sustainable, stomach relaxing valuations.
Liquidity is off the rails high. This is a risky inflationary environment supported by immense stimulus, posing as a safe environment where assets only go up.
The globe was shut down for 15 months. This seems like a conveyor belt heading towards the edge of the Alps.
You must posses a strong stomach to be 100% invested in equities atm.
Not negative, simply looking at perspectives.
I’m still almost 100% invested, although I’m not buying any more at the moment.
It is looking a bit choppy, but S&P 500 is still making new highs, and I think the secular bull market is still intact
The US market in particular has hit all time highs on almost every measure. Other markets like the UK or EM are less overvalued, so a bit safer, but the stimulus over the last decade which then went into overdrive in times of coronavirus has IMO caused massive distortion in markets and an unprecedented asset bubble.
Cash and bonds don’t look great places to be either, but what happens when they have to raise interest rates, or worse leave them at 0 forever, and stop buying bonds and start repaying debt? If governments want to get rid of the truly extraordinary debt they have racked up, the simplest most expedient policy is inflation, so I do expect a policy of sustained inflation in the coming decades.
Long term investors will probably be fine (though see Japan for an example of what can happen after a bubble - a decades long bear market), but a lot of people are taking a lot of risks at present with leverage, unregulated assets, and passive investing in indexes which are hyper concentrated in a few big names and sectors.
All the above is correct and it is obviously a opinions game regarding futures but there are some bargains out their. Especially for companies/funds that have taken over failing/in debt companies at a bargain price due to the climate at the moment. Obviously many are failing but I am actually optimistic but I am highly diversified and not expecting stupidly high gains.