I’ve simply used common sense on a macro scale and reacted accordingly. These are the main take seats I responded to in the moments.
(2019) 12 Year Bullmarket - Possible sell off
(2020) Big Virus - Stock market sell off
(2020) $6 Trillion Printed overnight - Inflation
(2021) Overheated Market - 10-20% shave-off
(2022) Been cash since Jul 2021.
I am obviously looking to enter on a dollar cost average bases, beginning fairly soon. I am just not in a rush to do so.
My point being, I am clueless at this moment in time. Yes, I have absolutely no idea where I stand right now which yes is proof you can not always time the market, but I have made moves in reaction to what I consider large scenarios.
It’s not really timing the market when you are making personal moves on direction situations. I’m just actually making action on how I invest. And to clarify I have never felt like I am a sheep in my entire life so quite possibly I may see things slightly differently to ‘the majority’.
I personally couldn’t understand how anybody was investing in the 2nd half of 2021. That to me looked like mindless investing. Like, how can you buy at that price in that messed up environment confidently?
I’ll be entering soon, simple method 2-4 index funds maybe a trust. I just, do not feel the rush to begin yet, even though I probably will very soon.
Do not mean offence in anything written, I just think mindlessly buying when huge warning flags are flying from above is quite, mindless.
There we go, back to cracking this old chestnut as soon as they realise the extent to which they’ve have miscalculated (especially the ECB as I assume Lagarde was the one making this statement). Suppose it was a matter of time.
The EU/ECB only really ever kicked the can down the road so to speak with the Eurozone debt crisis.
The southern Mediterranean countries are obviously somewhat reliant on tourism spending for significant part of their job market/GDP, some more so than others, with spending obviously dive bombing over the previous two years - • Travel and tourism GDP share by country EU 2021 | Statista
Ignoring the other factors like the Euro is probably too strong a currency for some of those countries, or Greece having a fair amount of tax avoidance, Italy’s aging population (highest average age in Europe I believe).
Quite the predicament to resolve…
If anything, the more data I see the more it tells me bonds are way likelier to outperform equities than otherwise. We’ve had (some) multiple compression, now comes the recessionary ‘e’ compression (starting to be seen already with retailers, Micron today etc). Bonds on the other hand have had to price in rate rises and are starting to behave like a haven asset again.