What is going on today? - Megathread

I’ve simply used common sense on a macro scale and reacted accordingly. These are the main take seats I responded to in the moments.

(2019) 12 Year Bullmarket - Possible sell off
(2020) Big Virus - Stock market sell off
(2020) $6 Trillion Printed overnight - Inflation
(2021) Overheated Market - 10-20% shave-off
(2022) Been cash since Jul 2021.

I am obviously looking to enter on a dollar cost average bases, beginning fairly soon. I am just not in a rush to do so.

My point being, I am clueless at this moment in time. Yes, I have absolutely no idea where I stand right now which yes is proof you can not always time the market, but I have made moves in reaction to what I consider large scenarios.

It’s not really timing the market when you are making personal moves on direction situations. I’m just actually making action on how I invest. And to clarify I have never felt like I am a sheep in my entire life so quite possibly I may see things slightly differently to ‘the majority’.

I personally couldn’t understand how anybody was investing in the 2nd half of 2021. That to me looked like mindless investing. Like, how can you buy at that price in that messed up environment confidently?

I’ll be entering soon, simple method 2-4 index funds maybe a trust. I just, do not feel the rush to begin yet, even though I probably will very soon.

Do not mean offence in anything written, I just think mindlessly buying when huge warning flags are flying from above is quite, mindless.

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There we go, back to cracking this old chestnut as soon as they realise the extent to which they’ve have miscalculated (especially the ECB as I assume Lagarde was the one making this statement). Suppose it was a matter of time.

The EU/ECB only really ever kicked the can down the road so to speak with the Eurozone debt crisis.
The southern Mediterranean countries are obviously somewhat reliant on tourism spending for significant part of their job market/GDP, some more so than others, with spending obviously dive bombing over the previous two years - • Travel and tourism GDP share by country EU 2021 | Statista

Ignoring the other factors like the Euro is probably too strong a currency for some of those countries, or Greece having a fair amount of tax avoidance, Italy’s aging population (highest average age in Europe I believe).
Quite the predicament to resolve…

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The words you quote are my interpretation of Lagarde’s words

The ECB are now going to punish higher income northerners to keep bond spreads in line for Italy, Greece etc.

This won’t turn out well.

looking at past bear markets, compare June to the second half of the year… we are going to the moon by Christmas :laughing:

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Does this happen to others anytime you buy a stock after it being at a stable price for a good while it decides to drop as soon as you buy.

:frowning: the luck or is it :smiley:

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You are being baited by algos

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If anything, the more data I see the more it tells me bonds are way likelier to outperform equities than otherwise. We’ve had (some) multiple compression, now comes the recessionary ‘e’ compression (starting to be seen already with retailers, Micron today etc). Bonds on the other hand have had to price in rate rises and are starting to behave like a haven asset again.

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I think most companies will get on this band wagon now

everyone demands a pay rise, inflation rockets to 25%
everyone demands more pay rise … :face_with_peeking_eye:
the never ending cycle to bankruptcy

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Yeah seems that’s like 9 or so companies so far that have or are about to strike

That chart has the power to mislead.

If something goes down 50% then it needs to go up 100% to recover.

So in every single one of those years, shown in the chart, the market did not recover the losses made in the first half.

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https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/d7cb45b1-aa29-43f1-9b23-c7e1b6ddaf85/many-happy-returns

Something tells me they ain’t gonna be producing 3 million bpd of oil.

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Looks like Boris might finally be heading to the hangman’s noose. Chancellor Rishi Sunak & Health sec Sajid Javid have both quit saying they cannot serve in his government.

To lose one cabinet minister is careless to lose two is …

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Markets don’t like uncertainty but maybe this is the end of uncertainty & distractions.

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Rishi is no great loss!

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