What is going on today? - Megathread

I believe it’s because the Inflation figures in the US aren’t as bad as expected

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Something strange is happening because I’m agreeing with Bill Ackman! For the foreseeable future the choice will be between anemic (or no growth) and 2% inflation or robust growth and higher inflation and in that situation you’d have to choose the latter. This links to what others like Russell Napier have said.

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I don’t agree. That is the very essence of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Wave bye bye to growth, imo. Money has to have a cost and cheap money makes for bad production.

This could be leg three of the 5 leg downtrend. Looking good for long term buyers territory. Could be the big dip to get in on with a long term value strategy.

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Come on Santa :santa:, where’s your rally?

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Seems to be stuck in reverse:-(

Good news for me is that my entire portfolio cant get any worse… it’s all in double digit red now… well, it could go into triple digit red, if thats even possible.

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Oh, it’s possible…

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FT.com article, free to read.

We need to have babies to sort the demographics.

We really don’t! Giant pyramid scheme.

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Well looks like no Santa :santa: rally at all this year. Another red day on the cards.

Anyway, Nadolig Llawen i bawb :wales: (Merry Christmas to everyone).

Hope 2023 turns out a better year for investments (and many other things) than 2022 was.

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Can’t be much worse!

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Said King Lear

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Coming to the end of the year. Does anyone have any good suggestions for looking at how well my portfolio has done in regards to the crazy year it’s been? Is the S&P500 a good comparison? Online journalists suggest an average growth of 10% each year but its not a normal year.

The only fund trader I pay close attention to has done +88% this year and considering the main index down ~20% that’s exactly why I chose this person to pay attention to the past 4 years. (John Thomas).

Regular indexes could float pretty stagnant over a choppy period overall so reinvested dividends and buying into large dips would likely show the benefits of compounding after a 10-15 year period. Things may not even take off for another decade or so. Lots of capitulating to do and direction to be found especially in that energy, infrastructure and carbon credits sector.

If you are buying 3 or 4 indexes &/or trusts then none of this really matters to you as you will always hold and invest regularly, as long as there is some tilt to future growth sectors in your portfolio. Watch where the big money begins to heavily flow into from 2024.

Back to your 10% per year question, from 2020 - 2021 I personally made 100% in the S&P 500 which I said at the time is ridiculous so I sold out my entire portfolio in July 2021 because the gains seemed waaaay way outrageous and a decline seemed imminent.

So I saved myself a ~25% drop and have taken advantage of the 4.5% guaranteed fixed monthly income on cash along with 2-3% in physical silver & gold. Throughout 2022 I’m probably 5-6% up on the year without taking any measurable risk. Some of my gains actually came from opening a 1% cash interest account back in March 2022 and the account won one of the X10 monthly cash prizes ironically.

This cash overall will keep dropping into investments throughout 2023 and hopefully a property by mid 2024.

So hope that helps weigh up where your portfolio is at.

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I’d compare it to VWRL mate as a baseline indicator. If you’re 10% up consider it a job well done!

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I’m negitive 20% on the time weight :smiley: but this is due to single stocks which at most have performed in the red.

If I never ventured out to those I would be beating the all world I’m sure.

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The world isnt beating the world at the minute :rofl:

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