Q2 2023:
• Strange period as every company today is trying to sell you gold rather than buy your gold from you. Seems like the trade here is profiting off-of high metals premiums. Vastly different from 2009-2011.
• If you & your partner earn £40,000pa & £20,000pa you’d likely qualify for a £250,000 property (maybe a little more). Yet at these interest rates you’d struggle month to month and £250k barely gets you an apartment in the southeast.
• Inflation in the US has come down but if you reduce interest rates the price gauging will spike inflation again due to lack of overall supply of desirable things.
• Petrol is still significantly too expensive for many commuters in the UK. Inflation in the UK has simply demolished real purchasing power for working & middle incomes. The reality of that will show over the next 6 months and into Q3 2024.
• The yield curve is inverted. Look to see what happens AFTER it corrects.
• The UK shows no sign of lowering spending in accordance to GDP or at the very least homing in on spending and getting the most talented to spend wisely for the benefit of the country’s working people who would kinda REALLY like to be asset owners themselves sooner rather than later when they double in price again.
There seems to be a buying opportunity in the making although nobody quite knows what in? Or if they do they are staying quiet and watching closely.
I would say that before Q1 2025 the smart money would have found the opportunities and been buying heavily. It’ll have something to do with interest rates, perfectly sized & located real estate and a strong equity value-fund manager who noticed the buying opportunity in accordance with currencies & interest rates.
Inflation slowing is fine, what happens after the dust settles? The majority of the western countries populations will have lost all purchasing power by then.
Before 2025 something noticeably large will happen to do with loaning money and interest rates and inflation. Vague prediction I know though I believe it’s likely a large amount of deposited cash will move as more and more are shown how to do that, not too sure the outcome of this on asset prices but something is brewing.
Going by the gold price (aside from the obvious brics situation), I’m guessing the majority of smart money already anticipated the movement of cash out of banks over the next year once it moves mainstream and your lower average saver even moves from cash to CSH2 or physical gold, causing a large issue for banks.
Seems like gold is the smartest play as the inevitable money printing devaluing the cash will likely benefit the gold demand and keep it high for many years.
I do not like the medium-term outcome of saying this though I believe 2023/25 will see:
• RENTAL PRICES GROWING, as young people trying to buy houses will be forced into apartments with an inevitable government subsidy in some way.
• GROWTH STOCKS CORRECTING, to adjust to lower sales and high interest rates.
• SOLID VALUE STOCKS HOLDING STRONG.
• COMMERCIAL PROPERTY CONVERTED into apartments.
• A LARGE ISSUE WITH LOANS, INTEREST RATES AND CASH MOVING INTO CASH FUNDS & GOLD.
Prove me wrong?