Milestones II - What to look out for in the week ahead

Hi Folks :ocean:

Welcome to Milestone II for the week commencing 15th November. A busy week ahead of us awaits so lets jump right in

MONDAY

Rocket Lab (RKLB) :rocket:

(No 4) Analyst range $20 - $30 BUY
The next launch window is the day after the Kiwi founded rocket company announce . ‘Love at first insight’ will be launching an electron rocket from New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula, the companies 22nd launch to date, they day after RKLB announce their Q3 numbers. This stock will likely live a die on the success of failure of each launch.

The coolest bit is the progress being made toward the the of mid-air capture of the rockets. A helicopter will be in the area of the ocean splash down making preparations for capture in future missions. I’m a space nerd :rocket: :artificial_satellite: come join us

Oatly (OTLY) :stop_sign: :cow:

(No 17) Analysts Range $20 - $36 BUY
Sweden-based Oatly AB went public in May of this year and after a brief peak of $29.00 shares now trade around $11.82. The main questions which probably won’t be answered are - Is oat milk just a fad? Can they stand up to the bigger boys? If you want to read this post from @dk1 from May you’ll defiantly be wise for it.

Look out for revenue of $253m This would still be a small loss for the company but with their expansion plans they could easily flip a ‘switch’ and scale back these plans and be profitable overnight.

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ATAI Life Sciences (ATAI) :mushroom: :mage:

(No 12) Analyst range $19 - $45 BUY
Last week we saw Palantir and this week another company backed by Peter Thiel post Q3 earnings. Atai owns 17% of publicly traded Compass Pathways who announced positive results from their latest clinic trial of psilocybin (the hallucinations found in magic mushrooms) @joeb is tracking this one closely :eyes:

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Warner Music (MWMG) :musical_note:

(No 19) Analysts Range $34 - $53 BUY
Newly spun from its parent company this update from the world’s third-largest label. The stock has risen 64% since its debut in June 2020. The company is reportedly in discussions with the estate of the late David Bowie to acquire Bowie’s entire catalog with a rumoured price exceeding $250m. Q4 revenue should be around $1.36 billion up 20% year over year. Lets hope the Tontards @CashCow @piggeh don’t feel to angry and Bill Ackman after this, I think they might!

Riot Block Chain (RIOT) :robot: :pick:

(No 5) Analyst range $42 - $82 BUY
Having risen 72% in the last month it remains to be seen if anything in this report will be able to keep this stock on course. Anything related to bitcoin often confounds traditional metrics. This is a hard one to call and you can see this with the wide range given by the analysts after huge rise this month already.

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Lucid (LCID) :battery: :oncoming_automobile:

(No 5) Analyst range $12 - $60 SELL
Its a good time to be an fancy EV company right now, Tesla smashed through $1trn market cap while RIVN are closing in on $100bn. Over at Lucid Motors things are just as rosy with the stock up 94% in a month or nearly $30bn. Production is on going on its highest end car the $169K Air Dream Edition with the cheaper models to follow. With a total 13,000 reservation there is a lot of faith being placed in the management ability to deliver on the promise. What do you think @Raul can they pull it off?

TUESDAY

Walmart (WMT) :shopping_cart: :shopping:

(No 5) Analyst range $152 - $196 BUY
Walmart has been benefiting from rising demand for essential items amid the pandemic. The biggest retailer in the US should benefit from the investments they made in e-commerce and click and collect, and they’re not done having recently invested in drone delivery company DroneUp. Sales increase for the 28th straight time in the last reported quarter and the company expect to make that 29 in a row with an increase of 6-7%. Walmart should be booking a chunk of cash for their sale of ASDA in this report too.
Increased supply-chain costs, high COVID-19 expenses & inflation remain concerns.

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Lilium (LILM) :battery: :helicopter:

(No 3) Analyst range $17 - $24 BUY
With the lofty goal of decarbonising air travel with their 7 seater electric eVTOL (Electric Vehicle Take off and Land) There is precious little to move the needle this Quarter, progress is what the market will be looking for. What do think @AlexFrow - you still like this one?

OnOn (ONON) :athletic_shoe: :switzerland:

(No 3) Analyst range $25 - $45 BUY
Roger Federer backed Swiss :switzerland: running / sports shoe maker On’s made its public arrival in September and has has climbed fast from $24 up to $37. As part of its IPO the announced an average annual growth of 85% in the last decade with 59% gross margin. This revenue growth is impressive but they have to keep this going if they’re going to justify a $10bn market cap off $680 million revenue (15x).

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Vodafone (VOD) :iphone: :phone:

BUY
After a 3 year streamlining exercise which involved selling off no core assets the market will be looking for Vodafone to kick on and generate some organic growth with profits to match. The stock is down 6% over. year when the FTSE100 is up circa 20%. How do we think they’ll do @Coolsmp @Bruce ?

WEDNESDAY

Manchester United (MANU) :soccer:

(No 3) Analyst range $13 - $16 SELL / HOLD
Over the past 5 year the share price is only up 7% when the nasdaq is up 220% and S&P500 is up 117%.

The lifting of COVID restrictions are expected to give the team’s chances and finances a boost along with the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo. With only 3 analysts covering the stock its hard to get a read on what the markets might do, look for $144.54m revenue which is down 11% on last quarter. The stock trades at 65.9 times estimated 2022 earnings but performances on the pitch need to improve if they’re going to qualify for the lucrative Champions League. @weenie & @Stewie Are you still holding your free shares?

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Royal Mail (RMG) :love_letter:

(No 3) Analyst range £4 - $10 BUY
With an annual growth of over 6% RMG is looking to build on its performance coming out of the pandemic, with more people reliant on deliveries than ever before this is the number that need to keep going or ideally improving on. Guidance on the dividend would also be well received with expectations of 20p as the bench mark (10p 2020)

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Nvidia (NVDA) :desktop_computer:

(No 43) Analyst range $130 - $400 BUY
The consensus seems to be buy with a small upside still to come, that’s after ripping of 124% growth for the last 12 months. Sentiment as much as the earnings call might move Nvidia this week, while most people expect them to beat earnings this isn’t always correlated with the stock price. Look for revenues of $6.83bn, up 44.5% from the year-ago. @Digital-Invester @RGol If you’ve held you’ve had a good year - are you still holding on?

THURSDAY

BaBa (BABA) :cn:

(No 43) Analyst range $229 - $2147 BUY
Recently some analysts have lowered their earnings projection by nearly 5% amid weak momentum in domestic consumer spending. That said Alibaba sold over $83bn worth of good on the biggest retail day in China singles day, 11.11. BABA’s future depends on how you read the activity of the Chinese government and how the ‘common prosperity drive’ affects them.
@Stav did you buy any BABA in the end? @AchillesFirstStand thoughts on this? It can’t keep falling … can it???

National Grid (NG) :zap::electric_plug:

National Grid are bidding on Electric, they plans to sell NGG their gas transport business next year and are in the process of selling Rhode Island energy. The extra money will be sed to fund the purchase they completed this summer of Western Power Distribution one of the 6 companies who distribute power from the national grid into homes. Look for steady earnings growth and the inclusion of numbers form their new purchase - maybe some guidance on that all important dividend too!

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Jump in the comments below, what do you think of BABA or NVDA? Are you going to be watching nervously to see what the markets think? Will anything that happens this week change your long terms plans?

Well that’s all for now folks from your friendly dinosaur :wave: and none of this is investment advice and if it were would you trust a cartoon dinosaur?

27 Likes

Keep it up Neil.

Two strong tweets from Very Normal Billionaires to start off the week:

Also, just wanted to give a shout-out to @DanLane and the FT team for this weekends newsletter on China. Haven’t been sure how to approach it for most of the year but now I’m more confident in the kind of exposure I’d like long term. Looking to buy the dip on Baillie Gifford’s growth trust tomorrow!

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Awesome and informative as always.

I’d also like to add that

Tuesday

When diversified energy company takes the cameras round in a deep dive of their operation. So hopefully it could put all the bad press the Bloomberg report did about them to bed… Or Not

Wednesday

IPO floating of Technology Minerals so if you’ve not voted for it yet please do so as it could be a good one to watch.

Friday

Q1 report of Seraphim Space Investment Trust.

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Woo, shout-out. Re $BABA

I don’t really care if it keeps falling, could be another buying opportunity. All I care is that the value is realised over the next 5 years or so.

The stock market is in the short-term a voting machine, long-term weighing machine :v:.

Thanks for the write up!

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Great work once again @NeilB. Vodafone is a huge conpany which covers over a 100 countries and been operating since the 80’s. Some would argue that its overextended itself in the last 20 years which caused a huge debt pile. The CEO knows this and trying to reduce this.

They did have a dividend cut in 2018 as they wanted to reduce this debt and reinvest in new technologies ( i.e 5G). Over the past year debt has reduced from €69.4b to €59.2 so the streamlining appears to be working but is this enough? Moreover, they do keep a large amount of cash as reserve so current debt could be less.

A further negative is that their dividend is not well covered by earnings but shareholders like their dividend so could harm investor sentiment if this was reduced further.

Nevertheless, there are pros to vodafone. On customer level I like Vodafone and so do most of its customers apparently. Ofcom carried out their annual survey of mobile network satisfaction and figures suggests that 90% told Ofcom that they were satisfied with the overall service they got from Vodafone.

And quite simply the business is profitable with a large market cap. So overall its a cautious :warning: buy from me.

P.S - (Not financial advice in any way)

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@NeilB this is a great piece! And yes, I still like Lilium. Holding for the long term and patiently waiting for their service to launch in 2024!

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Excellent work @NeilB.

And yes I did have a dabble in BABA. Not doing a fat lot of late but hopefully one for the future (like THG! :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:).

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Hi @NeilB, great work :clap:. I would only add Dlocal to your list. I think it’s worth keeping an eye on this one. They will report earnings on Wed.

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I’d like this to be a shared thread if you want to write a sentence or two about Dlocal - you could be a big help to someone else in the community :ok_hand:t2:

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I am excited about the prospect of a weekly thread using Roman numerals.

But more on-topic, just a quick thanks for these threads. Very informative.

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Thanks very much @NeilB for anyone who missed it, ‘Made in China’ is live on the site now: 'Made in China' has changed. You should too.

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Yes, sure. I’ll do it in my spare time :+1:

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Great idea @NeilB!

I haven’t read through the ATAI earnings report in any detail but with a drop of 13%, it’s a great opportunity to get hold of this stock at a great price.

I do still have the free share in MANU - they are not my team so when they do occasionally win, I’m happy for the share price to go up!

Not sure about their chances of Champions League qualification.

Great update @NeilB - I have a tiny fractional holding in NVidia, it’s up 133% for me - shame I didn’t buy more!

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As promised, here are a few words about Dlocal.

On its website, Dlocal describes itself as a cross-border payments facilitator, technology company and emerging-markets localization experts with operations in countries located in LATAM, APAC, the Middle East and North Africa. So what they basically do is integrate companies from developed countries with developing markets, offering a payment platform that, together with other solutions, increases the conversion rate, prevents fraud, reduces the friction of operations and facilitates compliance with the various regulations.

Among its customers are companies such as Amazon, Netflix, Booking, Uber, Nike, Didi, Dropbox, Zara, Wix and GoDaddy.

I’ll leave the link of the last presentation below in case you want to take a look.

This presentation refers to the result released yesterday and at this time I will be very honest with you. Although they have shown a very decent result in recent quarters, in the latter there was a reduction in certain metrics compared to the last one, in addition to the lack of guidance. So I’m not sure what’s happened yet, but I intend to read the last earnings call to try to understand. Anyway, I think it’s worth putting on the watchlist, since they have a great exposure to Latin American e-commerce that is in strong expansion.

Finally, I’ll leave an analysis of the company made by MT Capital, whom I follow on Twitter. I think maybe it’s worth taking a read.

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Amazing! @RGol thats a great addition. This community is best when everyone shares a little bit! Also sub’d to MT Capital - thanks for the heads up.

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I’m glad you enjoyed it. I forgot to tell you that the lock up expires on 30/11. So the stock price may be under pressure in the coming days. Also, it is worth reminding those who read this that this is not an investment recommendation. Although I have the impression that everyone here already knows that, it’s never too much to warn :+1:

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I’ll tell you what you can look out for this week.

Me, flying to the moon on the back of BEN, and waving my TM1 at everybody. :rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket:

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